Three year old middle distance horses 2023

Am I missing something in what I am about to say? I am really struggling to get my head around why BANK MAUR and especially VIRTUOUS CIRCLE are $15 and $26 respectively to win the Australian Cup on the weekend

I know times are hardly ‘the be all and end al’l of form analysis but it’s something I at least like to contemplate in regard to their ability against the older horses they may oppose. In this respect we can look at the times posted over 1600m in the Australian Guineas and Blamey Stakes on March 4. Yes there is a significant difference there between 1.36.34 (34.92) last 600m) and 1.35.53 (35.03) BUT the Blamey winner Non Conformist carried 55kg and now rises to 59kg. BM and VC actually drop in weight 2.5kg so on that example there is a turn around of 6.5kg which more than compensates for the time difference that day. In no way am I knocking Non Conformist here because he looks the benchmark runner out of that race and is going to improve fitness wise and (possibly) with the rise in distance Against that though he has to overcome a wide barrier.

To take the time comparison further we can go back to Cox Plate day in November where Anamoe won the Cox Plate in a time of 2.10.17 (37.24) and Berkeley Square won the 3yo Vase in 2.10.35 (36.82). Those times were almost identical and quite surprising. VC was beaten less than a length in the Vase (had to come wide on turn) and was spelled thereafter. He was also probably the run of the race outside the winner in that recent Australian Guineas. Jacquinot was favoured to win that race as he had beaten the older horses prior in the CF ORR Stakes albeit at 1400m. He could do no better than sixth, although beaten less than two lengths.

In New Zealand this Summer/Autumn we have seen the VRC Derby runner up Sharp ‘N’ Smart beating up on the older horses with his female 3yo counterpart Prowess in respective races. Both have done it at WFA over there with a direct formline through Campionessa (emergency in this race) and SNS through Defibrillate also. The latter is hardly a WFA star here, but he was in winning form over there, and was only beaten 1.7 lengths in the 2021 edition of this race. Quite a handy horse on his day. LEGARTO has already franked the NZ formline (through SNS and Prowess) by winning the Australian Guineas.

So all indications are that this three year old crop in Australasia are very competitive against our older horses. I guess you could mount an argument that both Ellipitical and Mr Maestro failed in the Mackinnon over this distance in the Spring against their older peers, but their beaten margins weren’t great (3.55/5.65 lengths) and they were probably at the end of their preparations at the time. Mr Maestro in particular does seem to be a few lengths shy of our better three year olds at 2000m.

The two favourites Cascadian and Mo’unga have their negatives, both backing up with no wins in that context. Track conditions probably won’t suit Cascadian as much as a wet track would and Mo’unga has a suspect 1/8 record at 2000m, and is changing states within a week.

VIRTUOUS CIRCLE is the three year old I prefer going on his run in the Australian Guineas. He was making up a lot of ground late, whereas Bank Maur was holding his. Perhaps the one negative is that he might be one run short coming in. This is his launching pad into the Australian Derby next week though so surely he has to run well here (and be fit enough) to be competitive in that race at 2400m?

FULL OF SINCERITY does look a pretty solid bet in the Tulloch Stakes R3 Randwick on Saturday. This really has been a lock race for the NZ three year olds coming through the NZ Derby in recent years and his last start placing against the current Australian Derby favourite Sharp ‘N’ Smart does look very strong credentials for this.

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Australian Guineas 2023

irst run in 1986, this is still a relatively new race on the Australian Calendar. It has been won by some high class gallopers including the likes of  Zabeel, Mahogany, Mouawad, Triscay, Flying Spur , Reset, Apache Cat, Miss Finland. Hey Doc, Shamus Award and Mystic Journey. The vast majority of those winners didn’t race on much after their three year old days.  Below are the last 17 winners of the race with relevant information- Gender, Barrier, Jockey, Last 3 starts (x denotes a spell), Position at start/800m/400m, Price (in that sequence).

• 2022 HITOTSU 3G (1)
• 2021 LUNAR FOX 3G (5)
• 2020 ALLIGATOR BLOOD 3G R. Maloney (2) Dx1 (1-1-1) $2.70
• 2019 MYSTIC JOURNEY 3f A.Darmanin (1) x11 (5-5-3) $4
• 2018 GRUNT 3C D.Oliver (16) 1×1 (6-6-3) $5.50
• 2017 HEY DOC 3G L,Currie (1) x31 (6-6-4) $3.50
• 2016 PALENTINO 3C (5) M.Zahra x72 (9-9-8) $9
• 2015 WANDJINA 3c (9) B. Prebble 0x1 (1-1-1) $8
• 2014 SHAMUS AWARD 3c (9) C. Williams 1×3 (2-2-2) $4.50
• 2013 FERLAX 3c (2) S. Baster x11 (3-3-3) $17
• 2012 MOSHEEN 3f (16) D. Nikolic x12 (12-11-7) $5
• 2011 SHAMROCKER 3f (7) G.Boss 2×4 (10-8-6) $31
• 2010 ROCK CLASSIC 3g (4) M. Rodd 121 (5-5-3) $17
• 2009 HEART OF DREAMS 3g (2) C. Newitt x43 (4-4-3) $3.75
• 2008 LIGHT FANTASTIC 3g (7) C. Newitt 111 (3-3-3) $2.70
• 2007 *MISS FINLAND 3f (6) C.Williams x41 (5-5-5) $2.50 (*race run at Caulfield)
• 2006 APACHE CAT 3g (8) N. Callow x31 (1-1-1) $8
• 2005 AL MAHER 3c (2) N. Callow 3×2 (3-3-3) $8
• 2004 RESET 3c (7) D. Nikolic 111 (4-4-2) $1.75
• 2003 DELAGO BROM 3c (3) P. Payne 0x2 (7-8-7) $3.50

Pertinent Statistics;

1. 19/21 won or placed last start and 18/19 finished in first four. 10 were last start winners
2. 17/20 won at least one of their last 3 starts. 6 had won two of their last three starts.
3. 18/20 started from barrier 1-9 with only Mosheen in 2012 and Grunt in 2018 bucking that trend.
4. 14/20 were in the first 6 runners in the early part of the race. Only three winners (Apache Cat, Wandjina and Alligator Blood) have managed to lead all the way, and no other horse has sat 1-2 in the run and won. Being placed 3^rd to 6^th early has provided 12 of the last 18 winners. Interesting that the only 2 winners to come from 10^th or worse early were both Mares that won or placed in the VRC Oaks the prior Spring.
5. 19/20 had their last start between 1400-1500m. 15/18 at 1400m, and the two that didn’t came out of a 1500m race at Rosehill in Sydney.
6. 8/17 had finished in the first 4 placings in a Group 1 race sometime prior to starting in this race.
7. 3 of the 4 Fillies to win during this period had won or placed in the VRC Oaks the previous Spring, and all had Spring campaigns behind them.
8. 11/18 started $5.50 or less, average Price $8.00
9. 16/20 had their prior run in Victoria, 13 of those at either Caulfield or Flemington.
10. Oddly 5 of the last 9 winners had finished in secong to firth place in the Caulfield Guineas during the Spring.
11. 10 Colts and 6 Geldings make up the contingent of males that have won this race, but 5 of the last 7 have been Colts.
12. 16/20 have been either second (6) or third (8) up coming into this race.

In essence we are looking for preferably an in form male horse (finished top 4 last start), second or third up, drawn barriers 1-9, that can take up a position just behind the pace early. He would have preferably  raced at 1400 last start at Flemington or Caulfield. A good run in the Caulfield Guineas during the Spring is a nice guide.

Oakleigh Plate 2023

This is one of the best handicap Sprint races in the country, probably my favourite to be quite honest, at 1200m or less . But then again I’m not a great fan of the big sprints down the Flemington straight, so probably biased in that respect. I have also had some great result in the past 10 years or so, with the likes of Swiss Ace, Woorim and Mrs Onassis winning at massive odds.  I think the most unique thing about this race  is that barriers play very little part in the result. In fact you are probably better off drawing wide than closer to the inside, which is quite unusual for a race at this distance. One year an on pacer will salute, and the next year a backmarker. It’s always a race with enormous depth and it’s share of quality performers. That often makes it very difficult to pinpoint a winner. Below are the last 19 winners and relative statistics (Age, weight carried, barrier and starting price). I’d like to say it helps a lot but in reality Form analysis of runners might be a more useful method to find the winner this year especially given the race is run at Sandown Lakeside.

• 2022 MARABI 5M (2) 54kg $2.50
• 2021 PORTLAND SKY 3C (5) 50kg $10.00 /CELEBRITY QUEEN 4M (3) 53.5kg $9.00
• 2020 PIPPIE 4M (14) 52kg $12.00
• 2019 BOOKER 4m 52.0kg (14) $17.00
• 2018 RUSSIAN REVOLUTION 4G 56.5kg (10) $4.50
• 2017 SHEIDEL 5M 53kg (3) $8
• 2016 FLAMBERGE 6G 58kg (15) $31
• 2015 SHAMAL WIND 5M 54kg (14) $10
• 2014 LANKAN RUPEE 4G 56kg (7) $4
• 2013 MRS ONASSIS 5m 52.5kg (11) $16
• 2012 WOORIM 6g 55.5kg (8) $21
• 2011 EAGLE FALLS 5g 57kg (9) $21
• 2010 STARSPANGLEDBANNER 3c 52kg (6)
• 2009 SWISS ACE 4g 54kg (18) $31 (I got $66!)
• 2008 WEEKEND HUSSLER 3g 53kg (10) $2.10
• 2007 UNDUE 5g 57kg (14) $15
• 2006 SNITZEL 3c 51.5kg (4) $11
• 2005 FASTNET ROCK 3c 57kg (6)$2
• 2004 REACTIVE 5m 52kg (1) $16
• 2003 RIVER DOVE 4m 51.5kg (10) $17

Pertinent facts;

1. 18 of last 20 winners have been first or second up when winning this, and 16 of the past 17 winners have been first up. Not that significant given  most of the runners attempt the race fresh from the Spring .

2. 18/20 aged between 3 & 5 years but no 3yo had won since 2010 until Portland Sky Dead Heated last year.  4/18 winners has been a 3yo and all have been Males. Interestingly two of those three year old winners had won the Caulfield Guineas in the Spring over 1600m. Three had won a G1 race prior.

3. Only one horse has carried more than 57kg to win in this period, but 6 have carried 55.5kg-57kg. 11/19 have carried less than 54.5kg to win and 14/19 have carried less than 56.5kg

4. Only 4 winners have drawn inside barrier 4, and one outside 15. Wide draws no real disadvantage overall (11/20 barrier 9 or wider)

5. 9/20  sired by a Son or Grandson of Danehill.

6.  Average winning price is very high @ $13, especially given there has been 2 winners around a $2 quote.

7. Nine of the fairer sex have won in this period (20 years), and six of last ten editions, which is encouraging given they would be outnumbered each year. Only one has started at less than $8 (Marabi last year) , and all have been mares aged 4 and 5.

8. 12/19 were in the first six horses early (one was a 10 horse field) , and 5 of those led all the way to win.

9. Every winner in this period had raced in Melbourne at some time prior excepting Celebrity Queen two years ago who dead heated with Portland Sky. Over 80% have had a Caulfield run on their resume.

10. Four of the last Thirteen winners had run in this race previously  (Shamal Wind twice) and all carried more weight than they had done in their other attempts, ranging from 0.5kg to 3.5kg (Eagle Falls).

Analysis;

Rather than look at every runner this year I’m just going to say why I prefer STAR PATROL to win (and concentrate on some others who look way over the odds).

1. He is unbeaten in Victoria (left handed) on Good rated tracks 4/4 and hasn’t missed a place from six starts. That also coincides with the addition of a Tongue Tie, Cross Over Noseband, and Lugging Bit. And of course a new stable.
2. His times when winning on 25/04/22 and 21/05/2022 were insanely good comparatively. He basically eclipsed the time of I Am Me in that April race when winning over 1200m (She won over 1100m). His last 600 was considerably faster too with 100m more distance. His time in May was superior to the time Giga Kick ran over the same distance at Flemington before he went on to win The Everest in Sydney. It was also over a second quicker than a higher class 1100m race on the same day.
3. A horse named Squid Game carrying 2.5kg more weight finished 7.5L off him in that April race at Flemington. Four starts later SG faced Chain Of Lighting who had 2kg less and he was beaten 3.75 lengths. Today Star Patrol carries 0.5kg less than Chain Of Lightning. Using 1kg =1 length, on that comparison SP should beat COL by 3.75 lengths today.
4. Cardinal Gem was also 7 lengths adrift of Star Patrol in April. CG later went on to defeat a horse called Jimmy The Bear. Both went to Sydney to run in the Golden Rose where they finished alongside of each other less than 6 lengths adrift of I Wish I Win. And we know what that horse did last week in the Lightning, flashing home to run a narrow second. Had that been 1100m he would have won by about 5 lengths!
5. A month ago Star Patrol resumed only half fit (seemingly) and defeated On The Lead (1000m it’s best distance, as this race was) by 1.75 lengths conceding it half a kilo. Three starts prior OTL raced I Am Me at 1100m conceding it 4kg and was beaten 1.89 lengths. Admittedly IAM did subsequently beat OTL at level weights over 1200m by 4 lengths but OTL is 1/13 at that distance. Using the previous comparison SP could beat IAM by a bit more than 4 lengths today .
6. Chain Of Lightning was a bit unlucky in the Rubiton lead up race. A horse called Generation endured a wide run there and with a more economical run could have finished a length and a half to two lengths closer. Asfoora is a favoured horse in this race today. She defeated Generation by 4 lengths two starts ago with a 5kg weight pull. At level weights that would suggest she is roughly equal to that horse, maybe a length or so superior which in turn suggests she would have been in the finish of the Rubiton, but may not have won it. Given that earlier SP/COL comparison I can’t see her giving 1.5kg to SP today and beating him.
7. He hasn’t won from three starts with less than 22 days between runs. Today he is 30 days between runs

So in essence I’m thinking Star Patrol has every horse out of the Rubiton (and Asfoora) covered today if he performs to his best. I’m thinking he also has the better of I Am Me who admittedly is a mare (great record in this race) in career best form and has drawn better than him, arguably. The only negative for me is the addition of glue on shoes for him today. Not quite sure what to make of that but it’s not always a negative. And this is the most high pressure race he has contested so he needs to cope with that and get clear running.

Some other interesting stats in this race.

MASKED CRUSADER is 4/4 in Victoria on circular tracks. The only time he hasn’t won here direct from Sydney was at his last attempt down the straight in the Lightning. He represents value. ASFOORA is 3/3 at this distance as is LOFTY STRIKE. Both UNCOMMON JAMES and CHAIN OF LIGHTNING are 2/2 second up which is the case for them today. MILEVA is 4-1/5 first up and all her wins are below 1200m (7/14). That narrow second to Bella Nipotina at M/Valley with a similar weight beating home Roch ‘N’ Horse doesn’t look too bad albeit a Heavy surface. She could run a race at massive odds. A tongue tie going on the sometimes erratic SHOOTING FOR GOLD could bring out the best in him. Apparently young Jaden Lloyd despite his inexperience knows the horse and his quirks very well, having ridden him in trackwork for quite some time (0-2/2 aboard). His best is pretty good and includes a win over Star Patrol at level weights (wet track) at this distance. He meets King Of Sparta 1.5kg better for a 1.50 length defeat last start. Probably not enough of a weight pull if you watch their last meeting (minus his Tongue Tie though). He is 3-1/4 at this distance which might be his best. 1/1 on circular tracks in Melbourne. Value?

So it’s STAR PATROL for me (providing zero rain) at what I see as a great price. Maybe play around with Masked Crusader, Shooting For Gold and Mileva Each Way and in Multis. All three are big price and you can make some sort of case for all of them.

Racing 11/02

The quality has really ramped up today after a couple of very, very average Saturdays. I’m hoping the NZ meeting at Te Rapa is going to provide reliable form as I’m keen to play there.

R6 CRUZ MISSILE– This is his acid test as a 3yo against older horses but the two favourites in the race are 3yo’s and his form lines up with them through his last start win (Devildom, Waitak, Prowess etc). $21 looks great value as he should be at least half that price.

R8 IMPERATRIZ is short enough but I love her stats. 3/3 on good tracks which I think gives her the edge over most of her opposition here. And she is 4/4 here and 3/4 at 1400m. Most of her opponents are going to be giving her a start.

Randwick R8 JUMP THE BROOM had no luck at all last preparation with wide barrier and has won 3/4 first up. She is 3/3 from barriers 1-3 and won’t get a better chance than this race to get back into the winners circle. Not a lot of speed in the race and she should be able to sit close enough to a moderate pace. The value is there too.

Sandown R9 HERE TO SHOCK was untouchable third up at this distance last preparation and is 3/3 given that scenario. 1-1-0/2 this track and distance. Other than that I haven’t done an exhaustive study of the race but those stats are too hard to resist.

Perth Cup 2023

A Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all on Twitter and particularly those that follow my ramblings and Blog Posts (not too sure how many are left!). This race takes place on Sunday and has tweaked my interest.

A couple of historical pointers and horses who fit the profile, along with a minor discussion of the likely speed in the race;

1. The Cerise and White of owner Bob Peters have won 8 of the past 12 editions which is an amazing stat. It’s been a fairly miserable carnival thus far for the Leviathan owner but how good do those figures look for the back to form TRULY INSPIRED? He was ridden very quietly to win last Saturday with a Tongue Tie added. He had overraced the start prior when he failed, ridden a lot closer. His racing pattern and breeding suggest he will stay the distance no problem.
2. Mares have a very good record in the race winning 5 of the past 11 editions. PURE DEVOTION represents the fairer sex this year.
3. 20 of the last 21 winners have carried less than 56kg to win. Eight of those have won with 53kg or less. I doubt that is very significant this year with 14 of the 16 runners on the 53kg minimum. It possibly dents the confidence a little with last start impressive winner BUSTER BASH, but his connections will probably be relieved that Marocchino isn’t taking his place in the field. That will mean less speed in the race and more of chance for him to relax up on the pace. The tempo of the race should be faster than average as he still has Trap For Fools and Cockney Crew to deal with up front, but he did handle both of those horses very comfortably last start, sitting off both.

ALASKAN GOD is the current favourite for the race and I think he is a false one. I’ve been against him this preparation after studying his times in the Melvista (Derby lead up), and the WA Derby earlier this year. He was impressive in both, but on times he was vastly inferior to the likes of Regal Power who won both in 2019. Home in 37.43 for the last 600m of that 2021 Derby? The positive for him here is that he has been deliberately set for the race and wouldn’t have been suited backing up last start. Notably all his wins are from barrier inside 6 so perhaps he needs cover and his chances hinge on how well he is ridden. It’s hardly a vintage Perth Cup and we know he runs the 2400m right out. I just can’t have him at under $5.50 with his current quote around $4. Twenty one days between runs here might be beneficial but all bar one of his wins have been with a week less hiatus (other was first up).

Tempo;

Given the speed up front this year you would expect that every horse will get it’s chance in the race, providing they can get some cover if drawn wide. A few of the leading market hope have drawn out a bit whereas the three likely leaders, COCKNEY CREW, TRAP FOR FOOLS, and BUSTER BASH have all drawn inside. That is a big bonus for them as they won’t have to work to find the lead. Buster Bash will probably take the sit behind the other two as he did last start. He looks suited with that same scenario unfolding given the ease of his win last start.

Analysis;

TRAP FOR FOOLS- Impossible to pick him on form and he will have other company up front from horses who do have better form. Winkers On could be a positive but hard to quantify what effect they will have.

BUSTER BASH- Is very hard to knock with the barrier probably negating his historically difficult weight. He likes his runs spaced a bit and his form has been faultless excepting the Railway Stakes where he came back in distance 200m.. They weren’t really making ground on him last start late which augurs well for his first crack at 2400m in a very even field. He is one of only a couple here to have a public trial which was a solid test when winning over 1450m at Lark Hill.

ALASKAN GOD- As already mentioned I’m not that keen on him although he does have a couple of things in his favour. Unfortunately the barrier isn’t one of them so i’m even keener to work around him. Maybe the jockey change will prove a positive though. The extra two weeks between runs is probably suitable for him and has given his trainer a bit more time to get him to find his best form.

BAD WOLF- Struggling against most of these recently and the barrier probably seals his fate being a horse who sits just behind the pace.

COCKNEY CREW- Second to Buster Bash and he did give weight to Truly Inspired last start. Not really going well enough on paper but if he ever repeated his second to Regal Power in the WA Derby he would be winning this. He has a couple of gear changes and the one that really interests me is the Norton Bit going on. That gear change came to the fore during the Spring with two Waller stayers Durston and Francesco Guardi finding a few lengths with it’s application. That’s what he needs here. $20 plus to find out.

COME RIGHT BACK- Average stayer but I’ve liked his past two runs where he has had little luck. The trouble is his luck looks out here too having drawn very wide. Had he drawn inside I could make a strong case. Pretty sure he was $91 the other day so somebody has backed him.

DOM TO SHOOT- Looks very well weighted here off his past two efforts at WFA and you’d swear he would run this trip looking at this finishing effort last start. His only other run beyond 2000m wasn’t good though so I’m in two minds His barrier is a little awkward as he isn’t an on pacer and I’m not sure they will want to go right back in the field. $14 looks pretty good odds if he can find some cover which he will almost certainly need. From memory he was pretty lucky to have avoided injury two weeks ago when that ill fated mare fell in front of him. A change of jockey and the extra two weeks now have me thinking around him.

HOLY ENCHANTMENT- He gave Queen Alina 5kg last start and battled on okay after being exposed too early in the race. His only run beyond 2000m produced a grinding win in slow time which might not have suited him. He does boast a second to Western Empire in receipt of two kilos. Conversely he got nowhere near Dom To Shoot with 5kg less two starts ago. He did come back in distance there though and it’s interesting to note his first up run was over 1800m this time in That suggests to me that the stable think he needs this distance this preparation. His draw looks economical enough and his price is way too long in my opinion. I might be wrong but I think the trainer is the same person who rode King Of Saxony to win this race in 1999, first up off a 12 month break for his Grandfather (or father). This is an even more unusual preparation now but this race has always been the plan and it’s starting to look a tiny bit like De Javu. Trained on a long stretch of beach at Port Kennedy where they can pour the work into him?

NEUFBOSC- Another horse that is weighted to win and his form looks good enough leading in with the drop in weight. He won this race two years ago (hasn’t won since) but failed last year albeit with 55.5kg. He did back up off 7 days to win in 2020 but failed off 15 days last year. In 2020 he also won another race in that preparation backing up. He is 2-1/4 given that scenario. The negative is he is only 1/17 when drawn beyond barrier 6. A good ride however clearly suggests he can be competitive. His odds are about right. Two weeks more between runs for him now has me thinking his chances are not as solid. But he is fit and well weighted.

PLATOON- He ran third in this race last year but he came off a better lead up run and he hardly ever wins. Stephen Parnham has been riding him for his father but has elected to go with Holy Enchantment which isn’t overly surprising with Brad Parnham sticking with stablemate Neufbosc. Drawn well and he hasn’t done so this preparation.

PURE DEVOTION- Oaks placed at this distance and she was a decent fourth in this race last year beaten less than two lengths. She had been very disappointing this preparation but the Blinkers went back on last start (first time this prep) and she had absolutely no luck behind her stablemate Truly Inspired. She has never won beyond fourth up and she is fifth up for this race. You have to respect the ownership/stable in this race, and she wasn’t tested late last start so she comes into this race with a bit of unspent energy. And she meets her stablemate 1kg better. He price seems overs to me given that she is really the only midfield/backmarker type horse that has drawn well (excepting Holy Enchantment and Stafford’s Lad.

STAFFORD’S LAD- Chris Parnham is convinced he’s a chance and stipulates he just needs a fast run race. According to him the horse was a bit unlucky not to win last year so one can only assume that the pace wasn’t fast enough. This race should provide the necessary tempo. He was a bit unlucky last start but still needs to lift on what he has been doing of late. 0-0-0/3 at 2400m doesn’t get me too excited but he has drawn well and did win a race at Kalgoorlie last preparation from up on the pace when he drew inside. That gives the jockey options here but not sure he want to be chasing too close to the pace in this.

TRULY INSPIRED- The Bob Peters owned full brother to the ill fated Truly Great ( unlucky runner up in 2020) returned to form last start ridden a bit quieter with a Tongue Tie added. He is a horse on the up but you’d hardly call him well weighted in this, with Utgard Loki from their last start meeting him 3kg better for a narrow defeat, and Neufbosc 5kg better off for his half length defeat. I don’t doubt him at all at the distance (half sister won an Oaks @ $61) and the colours are well and truly due for a big race win this carnival. He has drawn okay but will settle way back anyway. A Norton Bit going on really has me interested. As mentioned with Cockney Crew that is the same gear that was applied successfully to both Durston and Francesco Guardi during the Spring. The two week break for him could be advantageous as the backup might have been a tiny query and he is still a horse on the up.

UTGARD LOKI- He ran really well last start behind Truly Inspired with 3kg more weight. He has drawn horribly though, and 2400m looks to be his outer limit.

MYSTERY ISLAND- Adds a bit more interest to this race after his win two weeks ago after the Perth Cup mishap. The key may have been riding him back in the field and the wide barrier today probably necessitates the same happening. His overall time was probably similar to what he ran when beaten behind Truly Inspired the week prior but his last 600m was way inferior. That probably indicated he was a beneficiary of a fast pace, which admittedly he will get today. Is he as good as some others though?

Summing up;

This race has way too many realistic chances to be confident and the market more or less indicates that. I’ve agonised over a selection but have come up with TRULY INSPIRED with that gear change and despite the jockey change (Fred Kersley has ridden here), and not being particularly well weighted. PURE DEVOTION looks great historically, and value wise. Unlike a few others in the race you know she should get an economical run, and if the gaps come she will get her chance. Looking at the replay of last year she drew barrier 5 but somehow ended up three wide at the 1000m mark and was a bit exposed. Then she ran into a traffic jam at the top of the straight. By the time she was truly clear her stablemate had pinched a few lengths on her. Like that winner Midnight Blue she can go one better this year. He was third the previous year beaten 4.4L. HOLY ENCHANTMENT looks a knockout hope at a big price if he can peak, and his barrier is better than many others. BUSTER BASH looks to be ticking over quite nicely off that trial and he should get the first crack at the leaders. They are my top four in that order but this is a very tough race to predict especially given the two week delay.

Winterbottom Stakes 2022

Below are the last 14 winners of this race (with their Age. Gender and Barrier Draw) which became a Group one race in 2011. Prior to 2006 there were some very notable winners though and many of us who have been around a while will remember the likes of Marasco, Miss Andretti and Ellicorsam, all of whom were prolific winners and did come East and taste success subsequently.

2021 GRACEFUL GIRL 4M (16)

2020 ELITE STREET 4G (12)

2019 HEY DOC 6G (13)

2018 VOODOO LAD 7G (13)

2017 VIDDORA 5M (7)

2016 TAKEDOWN 4G (8)

2015 BUFFERING 8G (8)

2014 MAGNIFISIO 5M (10)

2013 BUFFERING 6G (8)

2012 BARAKEY 5G (9)

2011 ORTENSIA 6M (2)

2010 HADABECLORKA 9G (5)

2009 ORTENSIA 4M (5)

2008 TAKEOVER TARGET 9g (1)

2007 GLORY HUNTER 5G (6)

1. 9 of the past 14 have drawn barriers 7-13 and only one horse has won inside barrier 8 in the past Eleven years. Three of the past four winners have drawn 12-13.
2. Five of the last Nine winners sat first or second in the run, and one other was further forward than midfield (Magnifisio).
3. Seven of the last Fiftenn winners (50%) have been aged six or over,and three of those have been eight and nine year olds Ten of the twelve have been aged five or over. That is quite an odd statistic for a Group one sprint.
4. Seven of the past Fifteen editions have been won by an Eastern States galloper.
5. Seven of last Eightenn have been won by a Mare or Filly (Female). Celebrity Queen went close two years ago and perhaps was a little unlucky. Only one has been aged over five and that was dual winner Ortnensia in 2011.

This has also been quite a good race for long shots or at least those at double figure odds particularly when there hasn’t been a high class and obvious Eastern States sprinter. The last four winners have started $31, $13, $13 and $9. With the 2010 winner Hadabeclorka going around at at least $41 ( I got way better than that from memory). Takedown started at $9 along with Glory Hunter, and the mare Magnifisio was victorious at $7.50. So perhaps value is the way to go this year too?

Tempo;

There does look to be a mountain of speed this year. Indian Pacific went like last weeks pay last start (setting up a very fast time) , and he will need to cross from a wide barrier. Red Can Man similarly after tracking that same horse in the Colonel Reeves lead up. Snipparoochy has barrier one, is a leader, and will want to take advantage of that draw. Massimo led last start in a fast run 1400m race. He comes back to 1200m here but will be on pace you’d suspect. The Astrologist has barrier 3 and will be on pace Rothfire is speedy and has barrier 3. He maps to get the run of the race. This’ll Testya is also an on pacer but she won’t lead and should track the on pacers similarly to last start. I’m looking for a horse to come from midfield or rearwards to win. BUT we need to see a track not favouring on pacers, or those nearest the rail.

Summary;

I’m not going to go into great depth in analysing every runner. Given the excellent record of the fairer sex historically I’m just going to analyse that brigade in this edition which does look to be very open and perhaps a little down on quality this year. The scratching of Vilana hasn’t helped that cause.

12. KISSONALFORCHEEKS– This five year old mare represents great value. Back to her home state in her old stable (stablemate of Elite Street) on a drier surface should suit as should the freshen up. Her form behind Chain Of Lightning (started favourite in a Golden Eagle) conceding weight to that mare looks good enough. And back in February she gave This’ll Testya 6.5kg in a 1200m race here and was beaten less than a length and a half in an eyecatching run. Not sure she is a true miler with her sweet spot being 1400-1500m. The speed here should suit and the barrier probably doesn’t influence her chances at all. She will get back and power home and it’s just a matter of whether the 1200m is too short or not. She could have gone on a Winterbottom Stakes path last year but connections opted for a Railway Stakes campaign instead.

13. MISS CONTEKI– Was seemingly undone by the leader bias last start when she couldn’t get near This’ll Testya on the day. She profiles similarly to Graceful Girl last year but is her electrifying acceleration nullified at 1200m. She has ten wins at 1000-1100m ( 8 of those at 1000m) and her only win at 1200m wasn’t a big margin win against weaker class. Nevertheless the stable has faith and she looks the best selection historically at face value. Her barrier and speed of the race should suit in reality, providing she has the stamina to survive a very solid 1200m test.

14. THIS’LL TESTYA– She isn’t as well weighted today as she was in the Colonel Reeves and the track bias supposedly suited there. She was wide for most of that race though and just continued on her form form her previous two starts of this preparation. She was wide first up and Miss Conteki got a dream rails run to beat her. Second up she was wide again but game in defeat. Back to that last start win where the time was very, very hot. She ran 1.02.81 whereas in the same race last year Elite Street was half a second slower. And there is no doubt in my mind the track last year was considerably faster. No wonder they couldn’t get near her and they weren’t making any impression on her at the finish. 1200m looks an issue but she is in career best form and has that win over KOAFC at the distance back in February. She is 3/8 for the trainer and maybe Lucy Warwick has the key to her (2-1/3). She can put in a shocker of a run and hopefully she didn’t peak last start. There is no reason to suggest she can’t go on with it her given that she has been very good in all three runs this time in. From Barrier 9 she should get the right sort of run.

SNIPPAROOCHY- In form mare who should lead from barrier 1. She is a bit hard to line up here winning more obscure races. The best I can do is compare her time over 1000m two starts ago which was inferior to Miss Conteki by 0.58 of a second with 2kg more. I guess that puts her in contention here but she is going to have to survive a fierce pace duel in her acid test. She is the one that won’t have to work from out wide though and any leader track bias is going to help. Hard to knock a mare who has won 8/17 and is 6-1/9 at the distance. Importantly she is backing up and has won in that circumstance.

MY BELLA MAE- She is the most interesting runner in the race having had only the three starts for three wins. Whilst her time pales a little in comparison to TT last start (albeit different distance) she did beat the 1200m time of older horse Hot Zed on the day, and she did similar at her previous start also. She is clearly above average and they had to pay a 33K entry to run today. She also drops 3kg and should enjoy her barrier and the way the race is run (sits off pace) in theory. The three year olds are going well in Perth and Giga Kick won the Everest as a three year old with only four starts to his name. That was probably a harder test than she faces here, and she has won at 1200m twice whereas GK hadn’t won past 1100m and had to change states, and racing direction. Can she handle this high pressure speed against older horses though?

Hard to know which way to go here. All of these mares represent decent value but I’ll go with KISSONALLFORCHEEKS who will get back and hopefully finish hard late off a fast speed. I had the thought last year she could have contested the Winterbottom and could have won it. I don’t mind the fact she comes into this race as in ‘interstater’ of sorts. MY BELLA MAE is intriguing but might have to hold off a hard finisher late. THIS’LL TESTYA might at least have the locals covered off that time last start. I’ll go with those three in order.

Ascot Railway Stakes day 19/11

I thought I’d have a go at this card (excepting R1 & 2) although I haven’t spent a lot of time on some of these races;

R3 FLYING MISSILE has a touch of class and should get back to midfield with enormous speed in the race. Not a race I would like to get too involved in though. Pike on a dual first up winner with Blinkers on first time Materal Witness is interesting.

R4 WRITTEN MATTER hasn’t won at 1400m but his two runs this preparation have been huge. He should have won first up but really put the writing on the wall after a wide run. Second up he had to work hard from a wide barrier to lead and just kept going. Hopefully he gets a softer time of it today and the good barrier is going to help.

R5 ANGELIC MISS won three of four races at this time last year. She has a win over Snipparoochy too giving her 5kg. Today she concedes 3.5kg to that mare. She looks a good value chance here with the 3yo filly Baby Paris challenging for favoritism. Not even sure she can beat Snipparoochy on times though with both dropping in weight significantly today.

R6 IT’SARAYDAY might be the value runner having had no luck at all his past two starts. He is 1/1 at the distance and he draws a better barrier today with a fully fledged jockey on rather than an apprentice. Let’s Galahvant is one who keeps running good races and also seems significant value here from a good barrier.

R7 BUSTLER is 4/4 and I’m in his camp today. I was hoping All The King’s Men was going to hold him off last start but he dug deep and is probably suited at a mile more than that horse. The filly Amelia’s Jewel is very short in betting and I’m not sure she has come back the same horse as she was in her first preparation. The mile is a query for all of them and she is no exception.

R8 See Preview but I have IRONCLAD on top and it appears the track will be okay for him now. Also for Karli’s who I really want to see win.

R9- MR DELEGATOR appeals to me third up with his 5/9 at this distance and he has won 5 races with 15-21 days between runs. That is the type of break between runs he has today. Not much else to get too excited about in this race. A bit of give in the track looks perfect for him too.

Good punting.

Railway Stakes 2022

Below are the last Nineteen winners of this excellent mile race which is always one of my favourites on the Australian calendar. Hence the preview, which is always a tough ask!

2021 WESTERN EMPIRE (3) 53kg

2020 INSPIRATIONAL GIRL (8) 53kg

2019 REGAL POWER (13) 53kg

2018 GALAXY STAR 6M (2) 53kg

2017 GREAT SHOT 5G (8) 53.5kg

2016 SCALES OF JUSTICE 4G (8) 53kg

2015 GOOD PROJECT 4H (11) 53kg

2014 ELITE BELLE 6M (12) 53.5kg

2013 LUCKYGRAY 6G (12) 58kg

2012 MR MOET 5G  (4) 53.5KG

2011 LUCKYGRAY 4G (12) 53KG

2010 GATHERING 4G (6) 52KG

2009 SNIPER’S BULLET 6G (12) 56.5KG

2008 GILDED VENOM 4G (9) 52KG

2007 EL PRESIDENTE 4G (4) 55.5KG

2006 BELLE BIZARRE 5M (6) 54KG

2005 COVERTLY 4M (2) 51KG

2004 MODEM 6G (7) 55KG

2003 HARDRADA 4G (13) 54KG (Race staged at Belmont).

2002 OLD FASHION 5G (1) 54.5KG

2001 OLD COMRADE 4G (8) 53.5KG

2000 NORTHERLY 4G (12) 51KG

These are the most pertinent historical statistics;

1. 16/20 have carried less than 55.5kg to win, and 16/18 carried less than 56.5kg. 2007 winner El Presidente carried 55.5kg but was only 0.5kg over the minimum that year. 9 of the last 10 winners have carried 53.5kg or less. The only one not too was the dual winner Luckygray in 2011 and 2013, He had also run second in 2012 carrying 58kg.Eleven of the last Twelve winners have carried 53.5kg or less to win.
2. 18/20 dropped in weight from their prior start, and 16/18 didn’t rise in weight. The average weight drop over this period is roughly 3kg. No horse has won rising more than 1kg off it’s last start
3. 15/20 have been either 4 or 5 years of age, and only 2 horses have won beyond 6 years of age since 1989. 4yo’s have won 11 of the last 22, and 18 of the past 41.
4. The Lee Steere Classic and RJ Peters Stakes have produced 13 of the past 20 winners. Of the others- Mr Moet was first up. Sniper’s Bullet, Gathering and Good Project came via Melbourne through albeit different races, and Luckgray, Galaxy Star, Regal Power, Ispirational Girl and Western Empire came through the Asian Beau Stakes so it’s four winners in a row coming out of that race with the same trainer/Owner.
5. 18/20 placed in the first 4 at their prior start, and all bar one of those has been a WA galloper. 30 winners since 1985 finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd at their prior start. Stick with an in form galloper!  2 of the 3 Eastern States winners in recent times were well beaten at their previous start (Sniper’s Bullet & Gathering)
6. 13/19 have won from barriers 1-9, and 19/20 from barriers 1-13. Oddly six of the past Fourteen winners have come out of barrier 11,12, and 13 (four from barrier 12) as did Northerly in 2000. Providing the horse has the early pace to get across to lead, or be on the pace early a wide barrier is no disadvantage, the perfect example being Good Project winning in 2015. Either that or your horse needs to drop out to the tail early (Luckygray twice, and Elite Belle). Caught midfield off a wide barrier here is almost always fatal, and getting the speed map right for this race is crucial
7. 4 of the past 20  winners had run in this race in one of the past two years. 3 of those had been runner up.
8. 7of the past 10 winners have come from a midfield or worse position to win, which is a total reversal for this race which was largely dominated by on pace horses (or those sitting on pace to midfield) in the decade prior.
9. 18/20 had raced in Perth at some stage before winning. Gathering in 2010, and Good Project in 2015 are the only one’s not to have done so. Gathering got a soft lead off a very suitable (for him) 27 day break leading in, and GP also raced right on the pace.
10. Only 3 Stallions had won the race in the past 29 years. Good Project broke the drought in 2015, with the previous being Island Morn in 1994.
11. Average winning price is around $9 and that is consistent with results over more than a 20 year period.
12. Only 5 mares have won in the past 20 years, and allhave been aged  5 to  6. The positive is that four have won in the past eight editions, from the same stable and owned by Bob Peters (famous pink and white).
13. 3 of the past 17 winners  have come from the Eastern States. All have been Sydney trained, and came out of a last start Spring carnival run in Melbourne. And all have been on pace runners.

Summing up the ideal historical candidate would be;4 to 6 years of age, B) finished in the first 4 placings last start, C) Carrying less than 55.5kg and preferably less than 53.5kg  D) Coming from a barrier no wider than 13, E) had alead up run in the Lee Steere, RJ Peters or Asian Beau (more recently) and F) be dropping in weight preferably 2.5kg or more. G) Preferably be a Gelding or Mare. Finding one with all these pre requisites at close to or at a double figure quote would be ideal.

RESORTMAN– He is having his eighth run in a fruitful preparation but he is yet to race past 1400m which is a little bit odd. He ran on resolutely late in the Lee Steere but meets Karli’s Karma 2kg worse for that effort. 57kg and first run at a mile has me risking him (none of his siblings have won beyond 1400m) and I’m not sure the inside barrier is much of an advantage to him. He goes well on any surface though so a wet track is no problem for him.

YONKERS– He is a good traveller with his interstate sojourns reaping 4 wins and 4 placings from 13 races. When you consider four of those defeats were on unsuitable Heavy tracks it’s no surprise to see him in Perth contesting this event. Last start he was only a length or so behind Hezashocka who then went on to run a super second to Zaaki in the Mackinnon. That formline says he is definitely good enough to win this race and he looks quite well in at the weights. He also ran third to Numerian in Brisbane and that horse was just over a length away in the Caulfield Cup recently. Back to a mile here is unprecedented for him in a preparation (has won 20000m-1800m two years ago) but trainer Chris Waller has a good record in this race. The barrier draw did look a worry for him but now that the track is rain affected it ‘s probably not such an issue. He doesn’t like Heavy going but his last win was on a Soft 6 and he was good two starts ago on a Soft 7. His price does look overs in what might be a weakish edition.

GOD HAS CHOSEN- He looks to be really struggling for form and the wide barrier makes it nearly impossible for him against this lineup. He does handle any type of surface though.

KAPTAIN KAOS– Another local that is struggling for form rihgtnow but he has drawn well, Blinkers go on first time, and he is 3/4 third up. Seems harshly weighted against some of these but he will run the distance. The wet track is probably a bonus for him.

MAROCCHINO– In winning form and one of the likely leaders who has drawn a bit wide. Interesting that Willie Pike had ridden four times for four wins and Chris Parnham is two from two aboard. Jason Whiting has ridden him Twenty Five times for one win! At least he knows the horse well I guess. Might give a bit of cheek up front but his form seems best when his runs aren’t so spaced. A wet track looks beneficial given his 4/11 record.

COMFORT ME- Placed in this race last year but doesn’t seen to be in the same form this time around. Horribly drawn so it’s hard to see him figuring at all.

ALASKAN GOD– He was the star three year old in the Autumn and comes in as favourite. I have to say I have a query on him from the wide barrier in this class. As good a lead in race as the Asian Beau has been in recent years, I’m not quite sure the race is as good a guide this year. A couple in the race were unlucky in a blanket finish, namely Devoted and Searchin’ Rocs. The former is an emergency here and the latter fell in last week in the RJ Peters with Devoted an unlucky third. He profiles very similarly to Regal Power who won this in 2020. Looking back at his Derby and Melvista wins that year RP ran over a second quicker in both (similar track ratings) than AG and RP’s last 600m in the Derby was 1.5 seconds quicker. Potentially he is probably the best horse in the race but it’s so hard to win from where he is drawn, and there are enough negatives for me to work around him. The distance is another being probably short of his best and he is an unknow on wet ground (Siblings no good on it).

BUSTER BASH– Hard fit and a likely leader who is facing his acid test. He won his last start from a similar barrier. You can make some sort of a case for him given he beat a horse called Crescent City two starts back conceding him 4kg. CC beat home Karli’s Karma last preparation at level weights. His career win read 8/20 but he hasn’t from from 8 starts first and second up. Otherwise he is 8-3/12 which is quite a revelation. Backing up off seven days he is 1/1. He has a fitness edge on quite a few horses here and will give some cheek up front with this weight dropping 2.5kg.

IRONCLAD– Interstate visitor who looks up to winning this. When drawn in the first half of the field he has won his last four start. Seven of his last Eleven runs have been from barriers in the second half of the field and he hasn’t won any of them. Last week appears to be a decent barrier trial for this when he had no chance from tailed off last, but he ran on well. The trainer says he is a confidence horse and thinks he is doing well enough in that department to have a crack here. The query is the seven day backup and a very wet track. He gets through wet going but is more effective on dry it seems. He has drawn to advantage, and I think that will enable him to sit just behind the leaders which is his best racing pattern and suited to this race. He does seem outstanding value at better than double figures.

KARLI’S KARMA– I’m biased here because she is my favourite horse out west. Particularly after she won first up eariler this year as the 20-1 outsider in a seven horse field. Her form plateaued a bit toward the end of that preparation but since joining the Sumner Dickson stable she has found quite a few lengths. Last start she probably needed the run off a months break (missed a run in the Asian Beau as an emergency), yet she nearly ran down the leader late, probably peaking on her run off that break. The time was superior to the Asian Beau (though different days) and Notorious One confirms that to be true I feel. He was unlucky in that race when beaten less than two lengths, but he couldn’t get within five lengths of KK in the Lee Steere. She should be better served fitness wise for the Lee Steere but the query is the last 100m of a mile. She maps beautifully in this race so if she runs the distance out she can definitely win. Doing that now on a wettish track seems more unlikely. Her two runs on wet tracks haven’t been good enough BUT she is a better horse now and the track might dry out enough for her.

LAST OF THE LINE– He is a horse with a lot of ability and he can reverse the result form last week against Searchin’ Rocs with a 5kg weight swing. He was horrendously weighted last week but ran as well as could be expected albeit suited by the pattern of the day. His wide barrier is a massive problem here though and a wet track doesn’t look his forte.

NOTORIOUS ONE– Enigmatic galloper who was well beaten in this race last year, although only two and half lengths behind the runner up. The stable is adamant he is going better than this time last year though and the Blinkers go on. Given that scenario he is 2-1/3 when applied/reapplied in the past. A wet track is almost certainly a bonus too, and the barrier definitely is. If Alaskan God and TOTT are mid $4 chances then how is he going around at $71? There doesn’t look to be anything between them going on the runs in the Asian Beau.

SEARCHIN’ ROC’S– She was unlucky in the Asian Beau and made amends last week in the RJ Peters when given a peach of a ride on a biased track. You can only win though and she has great wet track stats and the mile distance is favourable. from inside barriers (1-6) she is 6-1/8. From wider than barrier 6 she is 1-1/6 so the gods have smiled on her again this week as was the case seven days ago. This is her first go on a seven day backup and if the inside isn’t ‘off” she should give herself every chance of winning. $11 is good value.

STARTRADE- He has been a revelation this preparation and particularly last start. He hasn’t won here from three starts and hasn’t won beyond 1400m. And does that last start say more about the opposition than anything else? He has drawn well though and handles any going. And he is hard fit. Going around at $35 and has form comparable to the two favourites.

TREASURED STAR– WA Guineas winner and that is good form for this. Also the Cerise and White have won this the past four years with William Pike aboard out of the same lead up race. On that factor alone she looks the winner but the barrier may have cruelled her chances. And she did only ‘fall in’ last start when things were in her favour, in what could be a suspect form race. She is possibly a query on a wet track also.

TRIX OF THE TRADE– He looks the logical favourite in the race given his current form strike rate, good barrier, and right lead up race. Historically he looks a ‘lock’ and his form on wet tracks is superior to most of this field, although he doesn’t necessarily prefer it. Again though I’m just querying the Asian Beau form a little in respect to value. He has the one win at 1600m and some decent form beyond it, but is a mile his best distance, or is 1400m better? He looks a very good chance but I’m going to risk him at the price.

Summing up;

Gee this tough now. With the wet track I’m not quite sure which way to go but I know I’ll be cheering Karli’s Karma for Summer Dickson and my early investment. Logically, analytically, and value wise I’m choosing around her though. The local form could be a little suspect so perhaps the two interstate horses get their chance. Those barrier stats swing me to the Victorian IRONCLAD and I just hope he handles the travel, wet track, and the backup. Better than double figures is good enough value for me. YONKERS probably won’t get a better opportunity to win a G1 race and his price is also generous. There are many other chances worth a mention, but the two at massive odds nobody is giving a chance too are Buster Bash and Notorious One. Searchin’ Roc’s looks good value in comparison to the two favourites.

Derby Day 2022

Have to have a go today and hopefully one or two of these come up trumps. Good prices as you would expect on a day with such depth.

Flemington R6 NETTUNO was very good in a jumpout recently at Flemington and he comes here off a Randwick Heavy track failure which can be totally forgiven because so many horses don’t seem to handle it at all. $27 gets me in.

R8 SHE’SLICKETYSPLIT– Ran very similar time to the older mares last start on the same day and distance. Pre race the trainer mentioned this race and wasn’t going to be perturbed even if she didn’t win the Thousand Guineas. He did mention she would be better suited to the bigger track at Flemington. Here she is dropping 7kg but against another gun female from NZ (La Crique). The price difference is stark though so I’m keen to take he on first start across the Tasman. Improving track (at this stage is a bonus) as is the $8.50-$9 price. I have also made mention of KIKU on Twitter who comes into that Randwick Heavy track failure system. Worth a flutter at $27 or so.

Randwick R7- PRIVATE EYE is getting out to a silly price now. I think the reason for that is this race being at Rosehill and not Randwick. But it has won here on a dry track at 1350m. Two failures have been on wet tracks which isn’t ideal for him. The other was in the Golden Eagle this day last year when he was trapped hopelessly wide the whole race and was beaten less than four lengths. He was super last start in The Everest on a least favoured surface and the start prior he was outstanding down the straight at Flemington. His time there was better than any time Nature Strip has posted at 1200m there.

GYPSY GODDESS is 2/2 first up and 5/5 on dry tracks (thanks to @Trev781 for that) and has a touch of class. The fact she has drawn well is obviously a bonus. This is such a tough race though and I’m also on the import WELWAL (super value with hie El Bodegon/Ornesto/Vedani form) and the Waller mare FANGIRL who hates the Randwick Heavy and returns to a more suitable dry track today. I could name another eight horses I like but I just thought the stats for GG had to be pointed out.

Ascot R8 LAST OF THE LINE comes into this race second up and is 3/3 given that scenario. The stable have had a big opinion of him for a while and he hasn’t delivered yet. Today might be the day for him because the two favourites have drawn very wide and so have a couple of others. I have backed TRIX OF THE TRADE also, It’s win first up was incredible. It’s very hard to win at this track from where he is drawn though. $10 is really good value for him if he can take advantage of that barrier.

Caulfield Guineas 2022

Saturday sees the running of the 2021 Caulfield Guineas a Group 1 set weights race for three year olds. First run in 1881 it has an amazing honour roll of winners that includes the likes of Surround, Luskin Star, Manikato, Red Anchor, Mahogany, Redoute’s Choice, Lonhro and  Weekend Hussler. In this preview I am primarily looking at the last Twenty winners back to 2001 in the quest to help us find the winner of this years edition. Below are the those horses with their barrier draw, lead up run, jockey and starting price;

2021 ANAMOE (13) 2nd Golden Rose D.Oliver $2.10

2020 OLE KIRK (7) 1^st Golden Rose- Rosehill W.Pike $4.20

2019 SUPER SETH (4) 5^th Guineas Prelude Caulfield M.Zahra $7.50

2018 THE AUTUMN SUN (5) 1^st Golden Rose 1400m Rosehill J.Macdonald $1.73

2017 MIGHTY BOSS (5) 4^th Stutt Stakes M/Valley 1600m M.Walker $101.00

2016 DIVINE PROPHET (1) Second Stan Fox Stakes Rosehill 1500m D.Dunn $7.00

2015 PRESS STATEMENT (14) First Stan Fox Stakes Rosehill 1500m H.Bowman $2.50

2014 SHOOTING TO WIN (8) First Stan Fox Stakes Rosehill  1500m J.Mcdonald $7.50

2013 LONG JOHN (1) Third (0.9L)Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m K.McEvoy $3.75

2012 ALL TOO HARD (3) Fourth 3L George Main Stakes Randwick 1600m D.Dunn $12

2011 HELMET (5) First Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m K.McEvoy $2.10

2010 ANACHEEVA (1) First Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m L.Nolen $6

2009 STARSPANGLEDBANNER (1) Fourth (0.6L) Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m D.Nikolic $13

2008 WHOBEGOTYOU (11) First Bill Stutt Stakes M/Valley 1600m M.Rodd $3

2007 WEEKEND HUSSLER (4) First Sandown 3yo Open 1400m B.Rawiller $1.90

2006 WONDERFUL WORLD (8) First Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m L.Nolen $6.50

2005 GOD’S OWN (12) Second (0.1L) Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m G.Boss $7.50

2004 ECONSUL (4) Sixth (3L) Stan Fox StakesWarwick Farm 1400m C.Munce $41

2003 IN TOP SWING (4) Second (2L) Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m N.Callow $21

2002 HELENUS (7) First Bill Stutt Stakes M/Valley 1600m S.King $4.25

2001 LONHRO (10) First Stan Fox Stakes Randwick 1400m D.Gauci $7

Pertinent statistics;

A) 16/21 drew barriers 1-8. Looking back to 1995 those same barriers have provided 29 of the last 35 winners (82%) so it is advantageous to draw favourably in this race. 12 of the last 18  winners have drawn barriers 1-5 which is a 66 % winning ratio. 4 of the last 9 winners have drawn barrier 1 and. 8 of the last 11 winners have drawn 1 or 5, quite a statistic

B) 8/21 ran in Guineas Prelude prior and one other (Helenus) ran a close third in the Guineas Prelude before winning the Stutt Stakes prior to this race.  5/16 came out of the Stan Fox Stakes in Sydney including 3 of the past 5  winners. The programming for that race was changed last year though to be 5 weeks prior to the Caulfield Guineas, hardly ideal from a historical perspective,

C) 20 of 21winners had less than a sixteen day break between runs.

D) 11 of 21 won their last start, and a further 8 finished in the first 4 placings last start. 19/20 finished within three lengths of the winner. Super Seth the odd one out.

E) 7 of 21  won their last start by more than 2 lengths

F) 11 of 21 were in the first four horses turning for home. Those that have come from well back in the field have generally had a class edge (Whobegotyou, Helenus, Anamoe) or produced a freakish effort to win (Lonhro, God’s Own, Super Seth). Divine Prophet was close enough to the leaders when he won, and got a great rails run. Mighty Boss the big roughie also got a dream rails run.

G) 13 of 21 started their Caulfield Guineas preparation in Sydney

H) 16 of last 20 winners had 3 starts or more in their current preparation prior to winning this race. The Autumn Sun two years ago did not, but he was a class above the rest and started odds on. Ole Kirk didn’t either but he also won the Golden Rose prior.

I) .7 of last 11  winners came via Sydney from a distance ranging from  1400m-1600m.

J) 4 of the last 8 winners (and 5 of last 9 have come out of a race at a distance of more than 1400m.

K) The better performed Autumn 2yo’s from the Golden Slipper or Blue Diamond don’t tend to win this race. Only one Anamoe last year) on the above list were prominent in either race, or the leadups to them which is quite damning.

L) 7 of the last 13 winners have Danehill (Sire) lineage.

I) The Hawkes stable has won three of the past ten editions ,and Sydney based stables have won Eight of the past eleven.

K) Thee of the last four winners have come via The Golden Rose in Sydney. Two of those won that race and the other was a narrowly beaten second.

Average starting price $12.00 is more than you should expect from a set weights race. But it tells you something about the unpredictability of three year old races at this time of the year, where all are open to huge improvement, and many trainers are yet to find out what is the best distance for their horse.