Logical Longshots 7/12

Not much luck last week with a runner up who looked certain to win, and two rides on others that were just not positive enough. It was just a small loss on the day with $4.20 a place for Live And Free being somewhat of a saviour. This week I’ve gone with the four hopes and three of them can be backed Each Way. The best of them is probably the first entry.

Pakenham R8 AMADEUS looks a lot like Kiwia a couple of weeks ago being a track specialist 3/3 here, and he has not only won this race last year, but also the year before. Going for a threepeat today. He comes off a nearly identical run to last year in the same race with the same break between runs. In fact with 4-6 weeks between runs he has a 3/6 strike rate. Given he has only won four races all told the three victories here look very significant. He has drawn out in barrier 7 which is great given his 0-5/10 record from gates 1-3. Luke Currie rode him to victory in this race two years ago and it doesn’t seem the weight is any major concern. He has 1kg more than last year but actually stays at the same weight as last start whereas last year he rose 1kg from his M/Valley run. Each Way. Second $4.90

Ascot R7 ARCADIA PRINCE seems value here given he was a bit of an eyecatching run here two weeks ago after a poor first up effort. Bar Plates come off and he meets a couple of horses out of his last race a fair bit better off at the weights. The two favourites Stageman and Flirtini look the ones to beat but neither has yet won at the distance and he has won five times at the trip and also won this race last year. Handicapper ratings have him clearly second behind Flirtini. Given that and his profile I think he should be a $5 chance but you should be able to get double that.  Win Only.

Ascot R8 MISSISSIPI DELTA has been described as a ‘simplistic tip’ elsewhere because of the Platoon reference I used on Thursday (on Twitter) I suspect (though maybe I’m just flattering myself). She thrashed that horse with 3kg more when first up and he managed to run second to Regal Power in the Railway the week after at level weights. She meets him 4.5kg better today which looks significant. But i urge you to watch the replay last start to see she really did win that RJ Peters race with quite a bit in hand ,and this could be her best preparation after quite a number of trials. The 1500m-1800m progression looks perfect for her, she has drawn perfectly, and she has an awesome strike rate. She may do nothing today but I find it impossible to let her go around at $16 odds. Each Way. It’s never ideal taking on William Pike on a stablemate, and I do think Tuscan Queen is the one they all have to beat. No doubt she doesn’t appear to be as good as last year’s winner Arcadia Queen yet but I do like the way she won last start. She seemed to surge again at the 200m when Pike brought out the whip after sustaining a long run from the turn in a race that probably suited the on pacers more.  Whatever beats her will probably win but I’m sure hoping that does happen with Mississippi Delta.

Ascot R9- STAFFORD’S LAD looks overs in a race that is dominated by two horse’s in the betting. You can line him up with both British Bessy and Sentimental Gift though on his last start when an eyecatching runner up to Morning Song. BB has a narrow win over MS with 0.5kg more weight.  Prior to that this horse was beaten 2.76L behind Prince Turbo who then defeated BB by 3.27L. Okay he is no super bet with a 4/24 strike rate but he should be at slightly less than a double figure quote on form, yet you can get $23. The weight drop should help, he generally wins a race every preparation (hasn’t done so yet), and the jockey has a decisive win aboard. Each Way.

My old mate Push To Pass goes around here and he isn’t totally hopeless either. He needs to find some zip, but the weight drop after the claim is going to be of some benefit. I’ve never fancied him much beyond 1800m, but he does have a win at this trip here and maybe he is looking for the extra distance nowadays. I’m probably being hopeful though.

Logical Longshots 30/11

Just the three today and I haven’t really had time to analyse too many races so hoping for the best. I made a decision in the last couple of weeks to just go Each Way if $4 a place is up early odds, rather than looking for a $20 win price. I’ve already missed a placing dividend on a few that have paid $4. I just haven’t made my reasoning obvious on the Blog until now.

Rosehill R7 LIVE AND FREE– I’ve always liked this horse but he hasn’t really lived up to expectations really. Interesting that he gets the Blinkers on today which hopefully means he can sit closer in a race that seems devoid of speed (he has won from closer to the speed when he was a 3yo). He is  sired by Savabeel who is a son of Zabeel, and that breed can often grow a leg with the shades on. Back on May 5 this year he beat home Bobbing by 1.7L in a race at the Kensington over 1550m conceding it 1kg. Today he concedes the same horse 0.5kg yet is three times the price of that horse today. Brenton Avdulla going back aboard also looks a bonus. He is 2-1/3 aboard and was riding him as a 3yo when he was showing all that promise. The horse is also quite small so I feel he can benefit from the big weight drop today. Each Way from a good barrier. 2nd $4.20

Rosehill R8 BALLER– Also finds himself in a race with questionable speed and he is an on pacer who should be able to cross without too much trouble from a wide barrier. He comes here first up and is 2/3 fresh. Back in late August he was beaten 1.7L by Deprive and Trope. Bon Amis was in that same race beaten 0.2L length with 1.5kg more weight. That suggests that BA is around a 3kg superior horse to Baller but today concedes it 6kg. The price difference is startling. Tommy Berry is back aboard and he knows the horse well being 2-1/3 aboard and he also rode him in a trial win recently. He is probably an 1100-1200m horse in this grade and gets his chance today.  Win Only unless he drifts markedly which wouldn’t be a good thing.

Ascot R8 DUBIOUS– See Railway preview. I think this horse is overpriced given his only meeting with Trekking suggests he can at least compete with him today under roughly the same weight terms. $2.70 vs $16 is a big disparity in price. Blinkers off seems to be a bonus, and who know what the addition of a Tongue Tie will do today. Craig Williams coming all the way over to ride him  suggests he is going to run a race. It’s been a very good Spring for the 3yo’s although admittedly he probably isn’t a top tier one. He travels well though, has drawn well, and is pretty good on his day. Each Way.

Winterbottom Stakes 2019

 

Below are the last 12 winners of this race (with their Age. Gender and Barrier Draw) which became a Group one race in 2011. Prior to 2006 there were some very notable winners though and many of us who have been around a while will remember the likes of Marasco, Miss Andretti and Ellicorsam, all of whom were prolific winners and did come East and taste success subsequently.

 

2018 VOODOO LAD 7G (13)

2017 VIDDORA 5M (7)

2016 TAKEDOWN 4G (8)

2015 BUFFERING 8G (8)

2014 MAGNIFISIO 5M (10)

2013 BUFFERING 6G (8)

2012 BARAKEY 5G (9)

2011 ORTENSIA 6M (2)

2010 HADABECLORKA 9G (5)

2009 ORTENSIA 4M (5)

2008 TAKEOVER TARGET 9g (1)

2007 GLORY HUNTER 5G (6)

 

  1. Six of the past seven winners have drawn barriers 7-13 and no horse has won inside barrier 8 in the past eight years. Nine of the past twelve winners have drawn between 5 and 10.
  2. Four of the last six winners sat first or second in the run, and one other was further forward than midfield (Magnifisio).
  3. Six of the last Twelve winners have been aged six or over,and three of those have been eight and nine year olds Nine of the twelve have been aged five or over. That is quite an odd statistic for a Group one sprint.
  4. Eight of the past Twelve editions have been won by an Eastern States galloper including the last four in a row.
  5. Six of last Fifteen have been won by a Mare or Filly (Female)
  6. The last two winners have come off beaten runs in the Manikato Stakes (WFA) at Moonee Valley.

 

History;

Probably has me leaning toward VITAL SILVER ( 6yo  local returning from Eastern States Manikato Stakes second) over the favourite TREKKING. Of the local contingent the mare FLIRTINI seems to be the most likely to win.

 

Tempo;

Both Home Of The Brave and Hey Doc have drawn wide here and I expect both of them to want to cross early thus injecting decent speed into the race. The mare Misty Metal looks the most likely to find the lead from a decent barrier and Dubious should also be close to the pace. Vital Silver is another that could lead but he might take as sit just off the pace early given he almost pulled off an unlikely victory in a career best effort last start when getting back further than midfield. He has drawn slightly better in this race though so the stable have options and his normal pattern is to race on the pace. Valour Road is yet another that normally races on pace but it looks unlikely he will find the front here with quicker horses that are better drawn than he is. Trekking should sit around midfield from a decent barrier along with the likes of Durendal and Endless Drama. Viridine, Spirit Of Valour, Rock Magic, Flirtini and Stageman look to the the ones who will drift back to the rear of the field. My best guess is that the race will be truly run and every horse will get it’s chance to win, unless they can’t find enough cover to get an economical (enough) run in transit.

Analysis;

I have this down to about six chances but really only four I could back. The two I’d leave out of winning bets are;

HEY DOC- He is dual Group 1 winner and has to be respected. This is his second up run from a long spell though, and the barrier looks to be a killer. My thinking is he will be ridden for speed, but I think his chances might be better if he is ridden conservatively. Either way he is going to have to work hard for a win.

TREKKING– He’s just too short in price now, and personally think he should be at least $3 from an inside draw, and first time in Perth. He has had a lot of travelling the past 6 months and having watched his last three runs I’m not convinced he is hitting the line as well as he can. The proviso on that is this is  a lesser class race than he has been contesting so he might not have to. Form says he might be too good but I can’t quite have him at the price. The stable have three in the race, which doesn’t exactly suggest to me that the confidence in him is sky high.

The ones I think are the best chances at value odds;

VITAL SILVER– As mentioned he comes out of the right race and he looks suited from a good barrier. He can lead or take a sit, or come from anywhere really. He is unbeaten 3/3 here, and is 1/1 at the track and distance. His runs in Melbourne were extremely good a couple of months ago,  and were pretty much aimed at having him peak for this. He will most likely look the winner in the straight, and might be the one in front on the line.

FLIRTINI– You couldn’t be more impressed by a finishing burst than hers to win last start and she was the only horse to make any ground down the outside in that race. She screamed home late to record quite a soft win despite the margin. Paul Harvey is 2/2 aboard and seems to have found the key to her riding her a bit more patiently.. Back in May she won a 3yo race over 1200m on the same day Vital Silver won the Roma Cup at the same trip. Her time was vastly superior overall, albeit her last 600m was inferior. That’s a good sign though and the weights of the two are similar in this race. Her time last start was comparable to that of Barakey (who went on to win this race) and Vega Magic who was beaten 1.5L in this race before going onto comquering the Eastern States the following year. She looks a great chance in this and should get a speed to suit. Barrier 12 shouldn’t present an issue.

STAGEMAN- As was the case in the Railway Stakes last week, he is Bob Peters owned and ridden by William Pike with the Blinkers going on first time. He has had no luck at this past two starts when beaten by Flirtini, so if you like her then you need to at least consider him a winning chance. He might not quite be a WFA horse and meets Flirtini 2.5kg better for last start when he had no luck at all obtaining a run in the straight. Whether he could have beaten Flirting had he done so, I doubt, but that’s not conclusive. He is very fit but on the other hand he might have trouble peaking for this. Blinkers can make a huge difference though.

ENDLESS DRAMA–  Historically he hasn’t drawn well, but all his wins in NZ have been from barriers 2 & 3 so it might well be a positive for him. His age of eight appears to not be a minus when you look at the honour roll in this race.  I think you have to consider him a good chance at odds because he was competitive against Trekking at level weights in Brisbane, and since then has beaten Te Akau Shark and Melody Belle in a WFA race in NZ. Importantly that was a fresh run, and was on a left handed track, His stats tell you he might be a superior horse counter clockwise. And interestingly he is 2-1/3 at this distance including that win over NZ’s best two horses. He would need everything to go right for him. He does seem to like to get to the middle of the track in the home straight, so if a run presents itself he might just put himself in the finish. Obviously I’m thinking his price is overs, though I don’t quite agree with his trainer who says he should be second or third favourite! Sired by Lope De Vega who has sired two of the best sprinters we have had in recent times- Santa Ana Lane and Vega Magic.

DUBIOUS– The only 3yo in the race but that age group have had a good year against their older counterparts this Spring. He is probably a second tier one but is still very capable and Craig Williams has been keen enough to partner him for this race when he could have stayed home, or ridden Viridine, who he rode to win last start. Blinkers come off and it’s noticeable he has run some poor races with them on. He has drawn perfectly,  drops in weight, and is a good traveller. He also looks like a dead set dry track horse so the conditions in Perth should suit. He has form around Dalasan who won a WFA race in Adelaide earlier this Spring so the class doesn’t look beyond him with the light weight.  There is a lot to like about him if he can produce his best, and you can take $16 to find that out. I’m sure the jockey has a plan in mind, and he is very good at executing them in these big races.

My top four is below, but I’m going for the mare FLIRTINI on top just ahead of Vital Silver. The female horses have a good record in the race and she is one that arrives for the race in scintillating form.

  1. FLIRTINI
  2. Vital Silver
  3. Dubious
  4. Trekking

I really do think that both Stageman and Endless Drama have great chances in the race too, with the latter horse at very generous odds.

 

 

Logical Longshots 23/11

Just the three today but accumulatively a bit more odds than I have been able to find of late. And they are in three of the better races of the day.

 

Ballarat R8 KIWIA– Just maybe there is ‘no place like home’ because he is trained here and is 3/3 at the track including a win in this race last year with a kilo more. John Allen jumps aboard and is 3/4 on the horse. Other than that I wouldn’t give the horse a ‘snowballs chance in hell’ and certainly wouldn’t invest a penny on it anyshere else. Cruel but he really has been a poor horse for punters. More likely then that he will produce at the decent odds he is today. Each Way as I expect him to get to $20 at some point. The barrier looks bad but he now comes in 4 barriers to the 9 positions. 1st $17.90, $4.50

Doomben R8 SNITCH– He draw a wide barrier first up and had to go back to last. I thought his run was massive in the end because he was still last on turning and a dozen or so horses wide at the time. He made up many lengths late particularly on his stablemate Vega One who had a perfect run in the race. The difference in price today between the two is stark and he has drawn a better barrier to resume an on pace position on a track where you need to be on pace most days. Each Way- Unplaced.

Ascot R8 MIZLECKI– See Railway Stakes Preview. It’s hard to not back her today at the price given her excellent record when down in the weights. She should get a lovely run in the race from her barrier draw and all bar one of her wins have been from barriers 1-3. She might not be good enough to win but a placing would be rewarding enough @ $8.50. Each Way.

I have had a bit of a look at Perth and came up with the following;

R4 ZIEBELL- He is gritty and decent value at $8 or so. He is a leader and I just hope he can get across from his barrier with not too much fuss.

R5- I’d love to have a firm opinion here but too many chances for mine. Looks to be between UNITIME, ALPHA SKY, KEMONO and TALLY but hard to separate them. Kemono has a placing behind the best horse in Japan (Almond Eye) but needs to lift significantly on what he has done here. Blinkers on and now with Lindsey Smith so hope springs eternal.

R6 BEAUTIFUL MIND has a decent strike rate and started favourite first up where the formbook says ninth. She should just about have won though, and is in a good stable. Handicapper ratings have the top two fillies miles ahead and this is a set weights race. Market Ruler looks to have the job ahead from the barrier, but ELECTRIC LIGHT has Pike aboard and is dropping in class significantly. The barrier and her overall form at Ascot (1/6) are some concern and she hasn’t won for nine starts now. The distance is a massive bonus though. Just a few negatives for some of the top rated horses probably gives BM her chance to win.

R7 KAY CEE- This is a very tough race and being 3yo’s things can be very hard to predict. This filly hits the line hard every time though, and has had the run at a mile now last week whereas the colts haven’t. She backs up but seems the type to handle it being so genuine and already having won off a 10 day break. She has drawn okay and the other filly hers Special Choice did separate the two colts Jericho Missile and Dig Deep two starts back then was behind her last week. She looks a half decent bet at the price.

R8 See Preview. What leads truly is a mystery so how can you be confident about any horse?

R9 REBEL YELL by default. This is an atrocious race and he was hardly super impressive last start. He does drop 6kg though after the claim, and wasn’t that far off Angelic Ruler one day at 1400m. Yet to win beyond 1100m but gets his chance here. Of course the barrier is a concern, so not much confidence at all.

Singapore Gold Cup 2019

Oddly I have forgotten this race was on the past two years.  It has probably been my most successful betting race of all time, having backed the winner in six of the prior eight editions, with most of those being double figure shots. The race really did go a certain script in that era, being a typical handicap race where you would just pick a very lowly weighted horse, preferably in form, or one that you figured was capable of beating the poorly handicapped higher weighted horses. Last year the race changed from a 2200m event to a 2000m one and it hasn’t really produced the typical winner the past two years. That distance also makes it less of a staying test. Still it does seem to be okay to follow a horse dropping in weight from a below par effort at it’s previous start. The horse that won last year came off a well beaten 5.9L defeat over 1400m prior, which would have found me out I’m sure. It was a bit of a fortunate win though given the third place horse had a horribly wide run in transit and was very unlucky (Mr. Clint). Below are some updated history figures (that I had in 2014), which should be more or less accurate.

  1. A weight drop is almost essential and 4.5kg is about the average drop required
    2. Average winning weight is approximately 52g
    3 4 & 5yos have won 8 of last 9
    4. Raffles Cup at WFA has produced 6 of the last 13 winners, but only won has won that race, and most have dropped massively in weight from that race to win off well beaten runs.
    5. 9 of 13 have won inside barrier 10, and those that didn’t all had 51kg or less in this race.
    6. The only horses to have won their previous start (and then this) came out of the Kranji mile (1600m race).
    7. No winner (in this period) has been beaten more than 7.5L at it’s previous start.
  2. 8. A former Australian or NZ based jockey has won 10 of the past 13 editions. My best guess is that 5 of those travelled over specifically on the day to ride in this race. The rest I think were based in Singapore at the time.

 

My first look at this year’s betting market had me thinking it was spot on correct but I’m not quite sure it is now having delved a bit deeper. Clearly the form horse head and shoulders above anything else in that regard is I’M INCREDIBLE who has put together six wins in a row from on the pace. A couple of those have been incredibly gutsy efforts after enduring wide runs and/or being attacked in front. He drops 2.5kg here off winning a WFA race which is normally a recipe for success. That makes him as deserved favourite and the one they all have to beat. A wide barrier, with competition up front, and a distance which is probably on his outer limit are of some concern though.

Tempo;

Dare I say it, we should get a truly run race here with the likes of I’m Incredible, Sun Marshal, Super Dynasty and perhaps Elite Invincible capable of leading. Black Jade can also race on pace.  Three of the likely leaders are drawn out in double figure barriers. I would favour an off pace horse to win the race this year although both I’m Incredible and Sun Marshal don’t give up easily.

Analysis;

Firstly I will state categorically that the typical historical pick in this year’s race would be REAL SUCCESS to be ridden by Australian based jockey Brad Thompson, who has ridden the horse in Australia on three occasions in his two and three year old years, for one win. He drops 7kg off a last start resounding win in an admittedly lower class race. His time that day was actually superior to the WFA race won by I’m Incredible, although it was largely race pattern that produced the difference. His race was run at a faster pace but I think that only adds more merit to his effort as he did seem to be a sitting duck for his stablemate Dicton who was a few lengths further off that decent pace early. That was 1800m but based on how he outstayed his rivals that day the 2000m is not going to be an issue with 7kg less, given he is also perfectly drawn. He finished midfield in a M/Valley Vase behind Stars Of Carrum as a 3yo and 7L behind Vow And Declare in another 2000m race at the same age. Apparently he is more mature now and I think the evidence of that was shown last start. $9 seems a good price about him given he beat a horse called Star Jack very easily last time and it had been runner up to I’m Incredible (with 2kg less) a few starts back at 2000m. He should get the perfect run in behind a genuine pace in this race.

Some comments on the others;

COUNTOFMONTECRISTO– The weight looks a negative but he is the class runner of the race and I think his handicapper rating of 109 has shin attractively weighted given he is 6 rating points ahead of the next horse. That means he should be giving 3kg, and not 1.5kg to the next weighted horse Predator, and 4.5kg to I’m Incredible. Keep in mind though that horse did beat him at level weights last time. Having said that I think he produced the best lead up run of any horse last start hitting the line hard late from well back in an unsuitably slow run race. He has never been to this trip before but that was 1800m and run suggested he would eat up 2000m. His mother won at this distance and he also has Siblings that have which is very encouraging.  He should get a race run to suit this time and his draw inside 10 looks fine for him. He is not the type of horse I normally want to back in a handicap but @ $17 I definitely want to here, renmembering the distance and weighting system of this race has changed in very recent times.

PREDITOR– Hard to see him beating the aforementioned off their last meeing off a similar race pattern last start, even though he is 1.5kg better off.  He is a place hope though from an okay barrier.

KING LOUIS– He might start as favourite and really is knocking on the door, beaten a lip by I’m Incredible last start. He is perfectly drawn to get the ideal run and has William Pike over to ride (0-3/3). What I would say is that he finds it hard to win and his last victory salute was more than a year ago. He is always quite highly fancied too so I’m not sure I want to back him at the price giving weight away to some handy runners. Absolute must horse for Trifecta, Quinellas and First 4’s though.

SUN MARSHAL– He was a surprise Singapore Derby winner earlier this year (1600m) , but it was a deserved win after being on the pace and wide early. In Australia he raced as Han Xin for the Waterhouse/Bott stable and ran second in a Grand Prix in Brisbane as a three year old behind Heavenly Thought relegating Dark Dream to third. The latter horse went on to win the Derby that year and now races in Hong Kong. He would win this race very easily with the weight this horse has allocated. He was comfortably beaten by I’m Incredible last start but probably needed the run and looks set to peak here third up for the Lee Freedman stable. The barrier is a bit tricky and so is the fact there is other pace in the race. Maybe he can slot in on the rail behind two leaders though and he looks a very good chance to win this @ $9.

MR CLINT– He has the services of Craig Williams and has drawn perfectly for the Lee Freedman stable also. As mentioned he absolutely should have won this race last year. BUT, his last run was a shocker and he has only won 4 of his 22 starts with 8 placings. I think this race is definitely harder than last year too. I can’t see any value in his $5 price but I think he is going to be a popular pick come race time. If he runs to his best then a placing looks likely again. He has drawn inside at his past two runs also and the run two back was very encouraging admittedly.

STAR EMPEROR– He had been the horse I wanted to be on for this race months ago and everything indicated he would be the likely type to win until he blotted his copybook last start in a big way. That was a run totally out of character and nearly impossible to forgive in regards to today. Every run prior his last 100m had been by far the best part of his races storming home late but last start there was just no spark whatsoever. He might just be a handicapper although he had run well at WFA at his prior start. He has drawn horribly but not sure that matters at all because he always drops out last. He has a jockey change and drops 6.5kg which appears to be his best hopes. Would love to see him as I’m on at $30+  but I just can’t see it happening.

SUPER DYNASTY- I doubt he is quite good enough but he was unlucky two starts back against Real Success and then won from the front unopposed last start, where he was entitled to win. He is the only true on pacer here to draw a good barrier and is also in the Freedman stable. The distance looks his real test.

 

YABADABADOO– He is worth a mention off two solid finishing efforts at his past two starts, one behind Real Success. I doubt the class of this race is actually that much of an issue but the 2000m is definitely a concern. 1400m to 2000m for today which oddly was the case for last year’s winner, and his last run has merit. Breeding doesn’t really suggest he can run in though one of his Dam’s Siblings has won at 2000m. I have seen worse $51 shots.

(Emergency) BLACK JADE– Has been disappointing at his past two starts but Blinkers go on and he can win based on his second to Sun Marshal over 2000m. He meets him 6 kg better here for a length defeat that day. He has won fiifth up which is the case here. The distance and class don’t seem to be an issue but his winning strike rate do. Nevertheless Blinkers first time and odds of $67 are appealing from a perfect draw and a likely perfect run in transit, if he gets a run!

Summing up;

I hope I haven’t missed the winner with the above. I’m not totally sure who I would have on top but I want to back both COUNTOFMONTECRISTO and REAL SUCCESS at what seem to be value odds. I’m Incredible is going to look the winner in the straight and is impossible to knock, and Sun Marshal looks a winning chance along with King Louis. Most of all I want to see Star Emperor win but I doubt he can off his last effort. Black Jade looks a very nice roughie if it gets a run which looks unlikely.

 

COUNTOFMONTECRISTO goes in as a Logical Longshot pick at the generous double figure odds.

 

 

Logical Longshots 9/11

Unfortunately none of these are massive odds but at least they are double figures or close to it;

R4 Flemington TOP OF THE RANGE got the job done at Bendigo last start at a great price after an amazing effort at Caulfield prior where he should have won the race and got himself a Caulfield Cup start. He has Surprise Baby form from the Autumn and we now know how good that horse is after a fantastic effort in the Melbourne Cup. I just can’t understand why he is $12 today given his form. The love for True Self is immense and I can understand why. I had backed it in the Melbourne Cup at $101 before the Geelong Cup, but now they want you to take odds on on a least favoured track surface. The drier the better for TOTR. Win only.

R6 NETTOYER wasn’t best suited off a three week break last week and backing up in this race has always been the plan. She did win backing up two starts ago and also in the Autumn. She hasn’t won a race with more than two weeks between runs and this has probably been her best preparation overall, remembering she wasn’t disgraced in the Epsom behind Kolding and Te Akau Shark after drawing wide and getting back way too far in the race. This looks winnable for her and she is a double figure price. She also meets Amangire 3kg better for beating it home 1.4L recently. Personally I think she will start at a better price than the current $11 so would recommend taking Best Price. Win only.

R8 MAGIC WAND– Is starting to get out to a double figure price and on her best form she should be no better than $4 in this race. We saw her best two starts ago in a very good Cox Plate and then she drew wide in the Cup on Tuesday and never ever got into the race. It was basically a barrier trial for her, where she probably didn’t run the trip and wasn’t going full bore at the end of the race. I know it looks a tough ask to come to this race a few days later but who’s to say she can’t cope with it? She should be on speed today and is massive overs on that Cox Plate effort. Other than the Favourite Melody Belle (who looks unders), what other horse could you confidently pick to win this? Win Only. 

R9 BIG REEL– Has an outside chance here given he meets Akkadian 4kg better here for beating it home 3.5L two starts back. The price difference is stark in this $81 compared to $9, and he is over $20 to place, and I do rate the other horse as some hope in the race (Gelded this prep). Coming back 1200m to 1100m is suitable for Big Reel so just hopeful he can at least run into a placing. Each Way.

Note here too that Esperance and Morrissy more or less hold favortism for the race. Interesting that both competed over 955m at M/Valley on October 25 and 26. Morrissy placed in a time of 55.1 with two more kilos than Esperance who placed in a time of 56.59. The winners of those respective races, Bella Vella and Fine Dane ran on Oaks day at Flemington in the same race with BV beating FD by 2 lengths. Admittedly I think the track did play a bit quicker on the Friday night for Morrissy, but not anywhere near to the extent that those times suggest. On the strrength of that I thought Morrissy looked the better chance. Just hope that assumption is right but maybe Esperance looked the better run to the eye?

Suggested Multi play;

Flemington R7 ADMIRAL’S JOKER– Low flying atm and had form around Mr Quickie last preparation. He has failed to get a run in a couple of G1 races recently but this looks ideal.

Sydney R9 HIGH SHINE– Is a very promising mare that gets in with a luxury weight of 53kg today after the claim. She has very good acceleration and really should get to a higher level of racing than this.

 

One unit with both around the $5 mark.

Logical Longshots Derby Day 2/11

No full race preview today which is the first time this Spring I haven’t done one. Such a hard day to get your head around (as per usual) so I’ve just tried to find some realistic winning chances at value. A few of these are borderline double figures but I got that quote earlier in the week and they are close today (if not $10) and a minial odds boost will certainly get you there. It seems as though the track at Flemington will be rain affected, but to what degree I’m not sure at the moment, just like everybody else. The ones I am posting should handle the wet whatever happens, unless it becomes an absolute bog.

R4 PATRICK ERIN– As most people who follow me know he was the tip on Wednesday in the Bendigo Cup but I suspected he might go to this race. The other race worked out really well anyway! This is a very competitive affair but he is still showing $10 first time in Melbourne and that left handed track stat of 10-8/21 hopefully bears some fruit today. There is more speed in this race than he ecncountered last time but he ran on doggedly at the finish and should be better suited in this. He needs to win to get a Melbourne Cup start, as do a few others. Win Only.

I have also backed CARIF in this after a very unlucky run in Sydney last time (same race as Patrick), where I believe he would have won, with an economical run in transit (he got anything but!). His odds have shortened to less than double figures though The horse I am wary if is THE CHOSEN ONE who I’d hoped would have been scratched. I can’t quite fathom that he won The Herbert Power (beating Prince Of Arran) and then couldn’t get near the placings in the Caulfield Cup which was run 2.5 seconds slower the week after. That suggests to me he didn’t back up that day, ,and that he could easily win this but do nothing on Tuesday. Prince Of Arran won the Geelong Cup in fast time since  and has had the perfect preparation for the Melbourne Cup, seemingly going better than he was this time last year. Keep this thought in your memory bank, and whatever happens today that horse is very likely to run well on Tuesday.

R8 STAR OF THE SEAS– Should run well here from a good barrier in a race that looks a little devoid of speed. He comes out of the Epsom, the form race of the Spring so far and he had a margin there on the likes of Rock, Cascadian and Fifty Stars. At the weights it’s not overly likely those three will beat him home today and he also meets the favourite Fierce Impact 3kg better for a defeat two starts back when he arguably could have won the race had he not been hopelessly blocked for a run in the straight. At worst that day he would have been a length and a half behind I suspect. He has drawn better than three of those horses I’ve mentioned and any rain is only going to enhance his chances. I have also backed Cascadian (barrier probably suits) and Rock earlier in the week. Win Only.

R9 MISS IANO probably represents as my best value bet of the week. It was very stiff not to win last start and the winner of that race Humma Humma is/was a three times lesser price, drawn inside whereas this mare probably has the better side of the track in barrier 14. She also prefers wet ground so the more it rains the better it will be for her. First time down the straight but there are a few horses in this race with the same scenario. Win Only (but each way if she drifts to $21).

 

Rosehill (Golden Eagle R7)- THE INEVITABLE– Looks great value to me considering the time he ran at Rosehill last start was actually faster than Arcadia Queen recorded albeit on different days (probably very similar surfaces). Add to that the fact he thrashed Deprive by 4L in Melbourne (albeit in receipt of 4kg)  before coming to Sydney. Deprive then came back to Sydney and beat Brutal fair and square at level weights. You can probably get $10 about this horse yet Arcadia Queen is $3.80 and Brutal is $6 from a horror barrier. This bloke has drawn 3 and should get the run of the race. I’d probably prefer the race to be 1400m, but he has won at 1600m and he should get an economical run in transit. Win Only.

 

It looks like another very typically tough Derby day and I almost feel I should have come up with one or two more at longer prices. I couldn’t but maybe The Prince is worth an investment on Tuesday too? Best of luck to all the Punters today- We are going to need it!