Not sure how much use this is going to be but I’ve tried to have a decent look at this Quaddie.
Race 6. There looks to be a massive amount of speed here and I thought it would suit something that can sit midfield or just behind the pace. I love the get back off the pace types first up that have won fresh so WINTER PASSAGE was an easy pick for me and she has been quite well backed. The draw makes things just that little bit easier hopefully. BOOMTOWN LASS led last start but it seems she doesn’t need to and it would be incredibly wise not to bother here. She has a good formline thorough Malahide who was runner up in a harder race last week. DESERT DIGBY might be the best roughie. Not much luck first up, has won here and is perfectly drawn. Add to that he too can sit just off the pace. GYPSY TOFF is 3/3 first up and resumes again today. I’ve left if out though fearing the amount of speed and the last 50m which might test. Obviously a few very good horses I have had to leave out here including the topweight which might have a class edge. She is another speed runner though drawn wide and I’ve had to go with those who can come off the pace. She could win though with a sensible ride that doesn’t take too much out of her early.
Race 7- Gee this is a nearly impossible Ipswich Cup to get your head around. Decided to go with BERGERAC as I did mention his fourth up record last week, and to watch out for him next time. Well I didn’t expect to see him in this week stepping up 550m in distance. He had very little luck in the straight last week and is very on paced which does suggest to me that he could run the trip out today. Blinkers come off but he will need a sensible ride from the apprentice. Just cannot afford to be posted from the wide barrier at any stage of this race. HIGH OPINION looks the obvious one on his form this preparation, and he comes out of a much harder race although well beaten last start. The 2400m was probably a bridge too far in that race. Outside of these two you could just about pick anything. FIRST CRUSH was placed in this last year and his trainer reckons he just doesn’t handle Eagle Farm for some reason. He did run very well at Doomben though in between two shockers at that track. He is an on pacer drawn well. I have risked the favourite FIGHTING TEO only because of the shortish price really, and the fact High Opinion did beat him home comfortably a few starts back. He has the better draw though and comes into the race with winning form, unlike most of these. MORENDI could be the big improver. His run last start wasn’t that bad and the Winkers go on here. That happened over three years ago when he bolted in his Maiden at this track. Needs to improve but this isn’t that tough a race in reality.
Race 8- Another tough race but I was happy to go with VIOLATE as first pick given his runs are being spaced, and he wasn’t fully tested in the straight last start when he should have finished a lot closer. Most of his wins have been first up but I’m imagining the trainer has taken it very easy on him coming into this which would suit. MAN BOOKER has been heavily backed today and his Stradbroke run was okay off a wide run. He had the better of I’M A RIPPA there but again draws much worse than that horse today. No back up form for him but the Perth horses generally do handle it in their own state and the betting support does seem to mean that the stable us confident he will. One at a massive price with some hope is BEL BURGESS. He should peak third up (arguably won third up last prep), and he likes to draw well away from the rail (5/9 barriers 7-9!). If he gets the right sort of run he could surprise but leading on his own generally is his caper, and that probably won’t happen today. MR MARBELLOUZ with the Blinkers on looks a live chance if he sits off the speed and CHAPTER AND VERSE would probably win if he produced his effort first up this preparation. I do think there is enough speed to bring him into the race. The form around that first up win and some other runs just doesn’t seem to have stacked up but today will tell us more. GAULOIS is a bit hard to catch but the speed on up front probably suits him too. PETROLOGY (the Caulfield duffer!) looks some hope too from a good barrier but you just want to see him win before you back him. Today could be the day.
Race 9- I Pretty much shut up shop after I saw the win of MANAYA last week given she has helped me out with a decent win at odds before. There has been an avalanche of money for her overnight and the Blinkers go on today which has been a winning recipe in the past. Hopefully they help her settle from the inside alley. The word from the jockey seems to be that she will get back but I can’t really understand that given she led in a race last July and beat all bar Princess Posh that day which is outstanding form. If she goes forward she probably sits off READY TO PROPHET which would be perfect. Her back up record is suspect at 0/2, both unplaced efforts, but the Blinkers on and the ease of her win last week give you enough encouragement. She is a half sister to former top liner HOT DANISH and is hopefully starting to realise her potential now. It looks a two horse race with ORGANZA the obvious one to beat with probably stronger Sydney form coming in. They might not want to leave RTP alone up front though. Distance looks a query for her and I didn’t like her last week over 1200m because the race had so much speed. That might not be the case in this.
I actually don’t hold out too much hope of getting this with a big field first leg of three year olds, and a horrid Ipswich Cup thereafter. The Eye Liner doesn’t appear much easier either so you probably need to take multiple runners in the first three legs. Knowing I have a shortie in the last leg I’ve gambled on a bit of value in the other legs. I went this way- 7,11,12/2,3,6/1,3,14/4. At least it won’t cost me a fortune!