Logical Longshots 21/09

I want to try and list a few horses at longer odds on a fairly regular basis when I think they are overs for a good reason or two. I don’t expect to win on a regular basis but would hope to find one at least 10% of the time. At the odds I’m taking that would ensure a very healthy profit. There is always the place dividend too but I wouldn’t be too interested at any less than $5 to run a drum. It’s a bit of a lottery but hopefully some sensible logic will pay off.

Caulfield R3 LUCIFER’S REWARD– He ran faster time than the older horses did last start at Sandown (overall and last 600m) and carried more weight. And he could have run faster time as he was eased down markedly the last 50-100m. He sat just off a fast pace there, and will do the same today. Looks a single figure odds type to me but is listed at $21 Really not too sure why. You can get $5 a place also as I write this.

Caulfield R5 EMBRACE ME– I have to say I don’t really see Pippie getting beat in this race if everything goes right for that mare but this one can be competitive. She likes wide barriers and does meet Pippie 2kg better for last start. She is a third up winner and her best effort was a devastating win at M/Valley at this trip when Brett Prebble was aboard whens she drew 12/12. Today she draws 11/12.. Prebble hasn’t been on her back since and now he gets to partner her again. She too is just over the $20 mark but has to be backed Each Way chasing a potential Group 1 horse who might get a very soft lead.

Cauflield R6 BRIMHAM ROCKS– Made up a lot of ground in the last 200m or so second up in a WFA race in Sydney last start. That run had nearly as much merit as the favourite Sikandarabad in this race, and he did come here last Spring and run a decent second to Yucatan in the Herbert Power. And he has been competitive with the likes of Avilius in the past. He drops 4kg into this (the other horse drops 3.5kg from WFA) and there is very little speed in the race. That means if ridden positively (has been in the past) then he can overcome his wide barrier. His chances will almost certainly depend on that factor. He should be a single figure chance but is $26. Each Way again.

Caufield R7 STREETS OF AVALON– He could start nearly 100-1 here and he’d need to produce a minor miracle to win, but I did originally have in my top four, and kind of regret not sticking with it. He has won backing up and was probably on the wrong side of the track last start at Flemington in a very fast time race. He would have run quicker than Dalasan did in the 3yo race, and if that horse was in this race he’d be close to favourite. This is also his best distance and is not that effective at shorter trips where the pace tends to be quicker. He will be up on the pace today from a good barrier and will get every chance. Probably more of a Place hope but you will probably obtain $15 for that investment. Each Way and probably more for a place.

Eagle Farm R7 TIVOLI STREET– Was totally unsuited by the slow speed last start at Ipswich but he was flying home late behind Dream Of Green. The winner came to town last Saturday and won at $20+ in a suprise result. That horse actually went up in weight but he drops 4.5kg into a OMW race. Why $26? Each Way all day!

Morphettville R5 BROWN BEN is close to double figures here and might get to that figure. I wasn’t surprised he won the Balaklava Cup last start at a juice early price given he came out of strong form races, and had Corey Parrish aboard. He seems to find lengths when that jockey rides him and he sticks today. This horse needs dry ground and should get it today. Charossa meets him 1kg better for a last start 4+ length defeat and BB is nearly four times the price. Not sure how that is possible. Win only for this horse and $10 would be nice.