Logical Longshots 16/11

Gee it’s tough to find any double figure priced runners today that look to be a hope, and I don’t know if I should be posting at least two of these. One is going to be 50-1 though and I don’t want to die wondering.

Newcastle R3 GORDON’S LEAP– I will say from the outset that he just can’t win on what he has been doing of late, and I’d prefer 1400m (2/2). He has won one of these Highway races though, and this is a pretty poor edition class wise. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt because Jay Ford is 1/1, he drops to a weight that he hasn’t had for a while (and he just might be a poor weight carrier), and he does seem to race better off a break that is longer than two weeks. Getting to a bigger track at Newcastle might help too. He almost certainly needs a fast pace. Each Way.

Newcastle R6 RENEWAL– Has won his last two starts when changing states and I like the fact he has form beyond 1200m (quite a few of these haven’t), and he has drawn better than a lot of his fancied rivals. He is fourth up today, and whilst he hasn’t won at that stage of his preparation, he has won fifth and sixth up so he can sustain form will into his preparation. He won his Maiden at this track (1/1). His 1400m win over Star Of The Seas and first up win in Melbourne suggest he can win in this class with a nice light weight.  He should be close to the pace and might be the one they have to run down. Win Only @ $11.

Sandown R8 PATRICK ERIN- Yes I have agonised over this one but again I don’t want to die wondering with him either after being keen on him last start,  when he got to a left handed track (10/22). I’m putting the last start shocker mainly down to the wet track and a poor ride didn’t help. He has run some abominable races on very wet tracks in the past 18 months or so, and he did pull up with a poor recovery rate last start. He should get a very economical energy saving run today from barrier 1, and the track is going to be dry so he has no excuses . Michael Walker aboard knows how to turn the form of a horse around and/or ride a rough priced winner. I’m just a little dubious of the two favourites Humidor and Southern France here. Obviously they look the ones to beat, but I would personally want to see than do something significant first at the prices they are. For Patrick I want to see $20 in reality, and I think he might get to that price. If we can get $4 a place at some stage I would be going Each Way but if not Win Only.

Although the profit on these is still above 70 units ( I think), it’s time for another winner as it has been too long between drinks now. Today might not be the day but you don’t have to lose too much at these prices, which is always a positive.

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