Australian Guineas 2023

irst run in 1986, this is still a relatively new race on the Australian Calendar. It has been won by some high class gallopers including the likes of  Zabeel, Mahogany, Mouawad, Triscay, Flying Spur , Reset, Apache Cat, Miss Finland. Hey Doc, Shamus Award and Mystic Journey. The vast majority of those winners didn’t race on much after their three year old days.  Below are the last 17 winners of the race with relevant information- Gender, Barrier, Jockey, Last 3 starts (x denotes a spell), Position at start/800m/400m, Price (in that sequence).

• 2022 HITOTSU 3G (1)
• 2021 LUNAR FOX 3G (5)
• 2020 ALLIGATOR BLOOD 3G R. Maloney (2) Dx1 (1-1-1) $2.70
• 2019 MYSTIC JOURNEY 3f A.Darmanin (1) x11 (5-5-3) $4
• 2018 GRUNT 3C D.Oliver (16) 1×1 (6-6-3) $5.50
• 2017 HEY DOC 3G L,Currie (1) x31 (6-6-4) $3.50
• 2016 PALENTINO 3C (5) M.Zahra x72 (9-9-8) $9
• 2015 WANDJINA 3c (9) B. Prebble 0x1 (1-1-1) $8
• 2014 SHAMUS AWARD 3c (9) C. Williams 1×3 (2-2-2) $4.50
• 2013 FERLAX 3c (2) S. Baster x11 (3-3-3) $17
• 2012 MOSHEEN 3f (16) D. Nikolic x12 (12-11-7) $5
• 2011 SHAMROCKER 3f (7) G.Boss 2×4 (10-8-6) $31
• 2010 ROCK CLASSIC 3g (4) M. Rodd 121 (5-5-3) $17
• 2009 HEART OF DREAMS 3g (2) C. Newitt x43 (4-4-3) $3.75
• 2008 LIGHT FANTASTIC 3g (7) C. Newitt 111 (3-3-3) $2.70
• 2007 *MISS FINLAND 3f (6) C.Williams x41 (5-5-5) $2.50 (*race run at Caulfield)
• 2006 APACHE CAT 3g (8) N. Callow x31 (1-1-1) $8
• 2005 AL MAHER 3c (2) N. Callow 3×2 (3-3-3) $8
• 2004 RESET 3c (7) D. Nikolic 111 (4-4-2) $1.75
• 2003 DELAGO BROM 3c (3) P. Payne 0x2 (7-8-7) $3.50

Pertinent Statistics;

1. 19/21 won or placed last start and 18/19 finished in first four. 10 were last start winners
2. 17/20 won at least one of their last 3 starts. 6 had won two of their last three starts.
3. 18/20 started from barrier 1-9 with only Mosheen in 2012 and Grunt in 2018 bucking that trend.
4. 14/20 were in the first 6 runners in the early part of the race. Only three winners (Apache Cat, Wandjina and Alligator Blood) have managed to lead all the way, and no other horse has sat 1-2 in the run and won. Being placed 3^rd to 6^th early has provided 12 of the last 18 winners. Interesting that the only 2 winners to come from 10^th or worse early were both Mares that won or placed in the VRC Oaks the prior Spring.
5. 19/20 had their last start between 1400-1500m. 15/18 at 1400m, and the two that didn’t came out of a 1500m race at Rosehill in Sydney.
6. 8/17 had finished in the first 4 placings in a Group 1 race sometime prior to starting in this race.
7. 3 of the 4 Fillies to win during this period had won or placed in the VRC Oaks the previous Spring, and all had Spring campaigns behind them.
8. 11/18 started $5.50 or less, average Price $8.00
9. 16/20 had their prior run in Victoria, 13 of those at either Caulfield or Flemington.
10. Oddly 5 of the last 9 winners had finished in secong to firth place in the Caulfield Guineas during the Spring.
11. 10 Colts and 6 Geldings make up the contingent of males that have won this race, but 5 of the last 7 have been Colts.
12. 16/20 have been either second (6) or third (8) up coming into this race.

In essence we are looking for preferably an in form male horse (finished top 4 last start), second or third up, drawn barriers 1-9, that can take up a position just behind the pace early. He would have preferably  raced at 1400 last start at Flemington or Caulfield. A good run in the Caulfield Guineas during the Spring is a nice guide.

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