Saturday sees the running of the 2021 Caulfield Guineas a Group 1 set weights race for three year olds. First run in 1881 it has an amazing honour roll of winners that includes the likes of Surround, Luskin Star, Manikato, Red Anchor, Mahogany, Redoute’s Choice, Lonhro and Weekend Hussler. In this preview I am primarily looking at the last Twenty winners back to 2001 in the quest to help us find the winner of this years edition. Below are the those horses with their barrier draw, lead up run, jockey and starting price;
2021 ANAMOE (13) 2nd Golden Rose D.Oliver $2.10
2020 OLE KIRK (7) 1st Golden Rose- Rosehill W.Pike $4.20
2019 SUPER SETH (4) 5th Guineas Prelude Caulfield M.Zahra $7.50
2018 THE AUTUMN SUN (5) 1st Golden Rose 1400m Rosehill J.Macdonald $1.73
2017 MIGHTY BOSS (5) 4th Stutt Stakes M/Valley 1600m M.Walker $101.00
2016 DIVINE PROPHET (1) Second Stan Fox Stakes Rosehill 1500m D.Dunn $7.00
2015 PRESS STATEMENT (14) First Stan Fox Stakes Rosehill 1500m H.Bowman $2.50
2014 SHOOTING TO WIN (8) First Stan Fox Stakes Rosehill 1500m J.Mcdonald $7.50
2013 LONG JOHN (1) Third (0.9L)Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m K.McEvoy $3.75
2012 ALL TOO HARD (3) Fourth 3L George Main Stakes Randwick 1600m D.Dunn $12
2011 HELMET (5) First Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m K.McEvoy $2.10
2010 ANACHEEVA (1) First Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m L.Nolen $6
2009 STARSPANGLEDBANNER (1) Fourth (0.6L) Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m D.Nikolic $13
2008 WHOBEGOTYOU (11) First Bill Stutt Stakes M/Valley 1600m M.Rodd $3
2007 WEEKEND HUSSLER (4) First Sandown 3yo Open 1400m B.Rawiller $1.90
2006 WONDERFUL WORLD (8) First Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m L.Nolen $6.50
2005 GOD’S OWN (12) Second (0.1L) Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m G.Boss $7.50
2004 ECONSUL (4) Sixth (3L) Stan Fox StakesWarwick Farm 1400m C.Munce $41
2003 IN TOP SWING (4) Second (2L) Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m N.Callow $21
2002 HELENUS (7) First Bill Stutt Stakes M/Valley 1600m S.King $4.25
2001 LONHRO (10) First Stan Fox Stakes Randwick 1400m D.Gauci $7
A) 16/21 drew barriers 1-8. Looking back to 1995 those same barriers have provided 29 of the last 35 winners (82%) so it is advantageous to draw favourably in this race. 12 of the last 18 winners have drawn barriers 1-5 which is a 66 % winning ratio. 4 of the last 9 winners have drawn barrier 1 and. 8 of the last 11 winners have drawn 1 or 5, quite a statistic
B) 8/21 ran in Guineas Prelude prior and one other (Helenus) ran a close third in the Guineas Prelude before winning the Stutt Stakes prior to this race. 5/16 came out of the Stan Fox Stakes in Sydney including 3 of the past 5 winners. The programming for that race was changed last year though to be 5 weeks prior to the Caulfield Guineas, hardly ideal from a historical perspective,
C) 20 of 21winners had less than a sixteen day break between runs.
D) 11 of 21 won their last start, and a further 8 finished in the first 4 placings last start. 19/20 finished within three lengths of the winner. Super Seth the odd one out.
E) 7 of 21 won their last start by more than 2 lengths
F) 11 of 21 were in the first four horses turning for home. Those that have come from well back in the field have generally had a class edge (Whobegotyou, Helenus, Anamoe) or produced a freakish effort to win (Lonhro, God’s Own, Super Seth). Divine Prophet was close enough to the leaders when he won, and got a great rails run. Mighty Boss the big roughie also got a dream rails run.
G) 13 of 21 started their Caulfield Guineas preparation in Sydney
H) 16 of last 20 winners had 3 starts or more in their current preparation prior to winning this race. The Autumn Sun two years ago did not, but he was a class above the rest and started odds on. Ole Kirk didn’t either but he also won the Golden Rose prior.
I) .7 of last 11 winners came via Sydney from a distance ranging from 1400m-1600m.
J) 4 of the last 8 winners (and 5 of last 9 have come out of a race at a distance of more than 1400m.
K) The better performed Autumn 2yo’s from the Golden Slipper or Blue Diamond don’t tend to win this race. Only one Anamoe last year) on the above list were prominent in either race, or the leadups to them which is quite damning.
L) 7 of the last 13 winners have Danehill (Sire) lineage.
I) The Hawkes stable has won three of the past ten editions ,and Sydney based stables have won Eight of the past eleven.
K) Thee of the last four winners have come via The Golden Rose in Sydney. Two of those won that race and the other was a narrowly beaten second.
Average starting price $12.00 is more than you should expect from a set weights race. But it tells you something about the unpredictability of three year old races at this time of the year, where all are open to huge improvement, and many trainers are yet to find out what is the best distance for their horse.