Epsom, Metrop, Turnbull day 1/10

Just my thoughts today though they certainly haven’t been much good of late.

Randwick R8 (Epsom) TOP RANKED looks a great chance here going on his last win and he hadn’t won a race below 1650m prior to that 1400m win. He is a high class import with absolutely stellar form at a mile and this is one of the weakest Epsom fields we have ever seen. He doesn’t seem badly treated here with 56.5kg and the Heavy track should pose no problems given he was only just over a length behind Verry Eleegant at WFA here over 1600m. Begrudgingly, (given I tipped it last start) I’d say HINGED is going to be very hard to beat because of the Heavy track and the fact she drops so massively in weight. It’s really hard to see Icebath beating her home from last start on that comparison so it shouldn’t be favourite here.

R9 (Metrop) HAMERON is going to be tested class wise but I just want to be on him at 2400m. Given his dourness it seems he is looking for 2400m+ and gets his chance here off an eyecatching run last week. A Heavy track today is a big bonus for him too seeing he is 3/4 on that surface. DURSTON is absolutely flying and the only thing that might bring him back to the field here is the Heavy surface. Since the Norton Bit went on he has been sensational winning by decent margins in his last two starts. Weighted to win on what he has been doing. Has to go into all Multis today. Price is probably unders though and I’d like to see $4 at least.

R10 COAL CRUSHER appeals to me hear beating a pretty decent field before a spell at the end of a preparation where he was only beaten once in six starts. He was beaten on debut but has won his two first up runs since both with Blinkers coming off. They come off again today and he is 3/4 on Heavy tracks. I’m imagining him sitting first or second in this race which should afford him every chance. I’m wary of STEELY in the gun first up stable of Ryan/Alexiou off a nice trial. He has won two races first up and handles Heavy ground. The fact it is Randwick and he has drawn wide just has me preferring the other horse a little.

Flemington R6 DAQIANSWEETJUNIOR– Has never won a race first or second up (0/6) but third to sixth up he is 6/8. Add to that he has been running on wet tracks of late and it seems he is far better on dry ground (5/7). This is a tough race but $8.50 is too good a price not to take with those two stats and the fact he is stepping up in distance. He did win the Adelaide Cup at 3200m last preparation and wasn’t far away in a Sydney Cup on and unsuitable surface.

Flemington R7 (Turnbull)- PROFONDO reaches his D-Day today and he gets his chance back on a dry track for the first time in six starts. The last time he was on this surface he thrashed Alegron who has since run second in two Derbies behind the superstar Hitotsu. I’d prefer to see him with a kilo less weight but he is still only 2kg over the minimum here. If he is going to find his best form it will be today. GOLD TRIP looks the big danger dropping 5.5kg here from last start and his best form would win this by many lengths. The query with him is his will to win but if he captures that he should be the one. CHAPADA looks the best roughie in the race given a good run last here in this behind Incentivise with 2kg more. He looks to be going at least as well this preparation coming in.

Kalgoorlie R8 (Cup) SLUICE BOX has been set for this race it seems although I’m sure the stable would have wanted to pick up the Boulder Cup 13 days ago.. On face value he was disappointing last start but he got cramped for room at the top of the straight and that probably didn’t suit The prior start here he was way underdone with 7 weeks between runs. I’d expect Shaun Mcgruddy back on suits and he will be given more galloping room today. He does meet Stafford’s Lad 2kg better for last start. The value isn’t great @ $5.50 for him but I’d expect him to drift in price a little bit. The horse who might be value is NATIVE CHIMES. It did beat General Grant over 1500m in March and has found form recently. There is a massive difference in price between those two today and GG has had a big of a setback since (missed a start in Boulder Cup here), though the trainer says there is no fitness concern for him.

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