Caulfield Cup 2021

Historically it’s quite a difficult race to assess but the last 18 winners have been aged 4-6 and 12 of those 18 have drawn a single figure barrier. If my memory serves correct 6 of these winners ran first 4 in the ATC Derby in the Autumn, and that race would still, in my opinion be the best long term guide to his race. As is so often the case in races at Caulfield it is advantageous to be somewhere near the pace, especially on the turn. And if not, a rails run on straightening can be a winning move (Tawqeet 2006, Diatribe 2001, Boom Time 2017).

2020 Verry Eleegant

2019  Mer De Glace

2018   Best Solution

2017 – Boom Time

2016 – Jameka

2015 – Mongolian Khan

2014 – Admire Rakti

2013 – Fawkner

2012 – Dunaden

2011 – Southern Speed

2010 – Descarado

2009 – Viewed

2008 – All The Good[1]

2007 – Master O’Reilly

2006 – Tawqeet

2005 – Railings

2004 – Elvstroem

2003 – Mummify

2002 – Northerly

Four of the past Twelve winners were having their first start in Australia and Five of Twelve had their last start overseas (Dunaden had won the Melbourne Cup the previous year). All The Good, Best Solution, Mer De Glace and Verry Eleegant had won their prior race. In fact Four of the past Five winners won their previous start.

  • Seven of the past 12 Caulfield Cups have been won by Australian or New Zealand-trained horses, five of which had their final lead-up run in the Turnbull Stakes;
  • 13 of the past 32 Cup winners have come via the Turnbull, nine of which finished top three.
  • Boom Time won in 2016 a week after finishing third in the Herbert Power Stakes, just the third horse to win the Cup out of the Herbert Power in the past 30 years;
  • Mongolian Khan also won the Cup on a seven-day back-up, out of the Caulfield Stakes, and is the only horse since Mummify (2003) to do so; and
  • Favourite backers had a super run between Taufan’s Melody and Boom Time, with half of the 16 editions between 1999 and 2016 won by the favourite; and
  • Between 1978 and 1998 just three favourites were successful and seven winners started $21 or longer including three at $51 or better.
  • Unlike most handicap races the higher weighted horses have a better strike rate in this. Mer De Glace, Best Solution, Dunaden, Admire Rakti, Fawkner, Viewed and Verry Eleegant carried 55kg or more to win in recent times.
  • Between 1988 and 2007 just three horses won with more than 54.5kg, but eight of the past 12 have been won by horses carrying at least 55kg; and
  • 52.5kg is the most successful weight in the past Twelve years with three wins, while  Boom Time had 2016.

Winning barriers have also been shared around in the last thirteen editions with six winners starting from the inside half of the field and the other seven starting from 10 or wider.

  • In the past 30 years, gates three, seven and nine are the most successful Caulfield Cup barriers with four wins a piece; and
  • No horse has won from barrier one since Velocity in 1941.
  • Four-year-olds are the most successful age group in Caulfield Cup history with Best Solution, Descarado, Southern Speed, Mongolian Khan, Jameka and Mer De Glace horses of that vintage to have won in the past decade. They have a better than 50 per cent record since 1988, having won 17  of the 33 editions;
  • Six-year-olds have been the equal-most-successful age group in the past Thirteen years with four wins

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