Logical Longshots 3/04

A couple of these have firmed into shorter odds than I obtained yesterday which is a bit disappointing. A bit of a struggle to find realistic chances at massive odds today.

Rosehill R5 SIGNORE FOX might need an inspired ride from JMAC given the pattern of this track so far but at least he has drawn closer to the rails which looks the place to be. How far back he gets is the big problem. The aforementioned jockey is 4/4 aboard and hasn’t been on his back for quite some time. Track conditions favour this horse and he meets the likes of Deprive and Roheryn far better at the weights for previous meetings. Win Only at a price that has drifted below my required $10. An odds boost will get you there though. The favourite CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL does look the one they all have to beat though given she has drawn well and can be close enough to the pace. Win Only currently $8.50

Caulfield R6 IDIDITFORLOVE is my best value bet of the day but the $17 early has now well and truly gone. She gets in here with 51.5kg after the claim and should be nearly favourite if you look at his formlines. China Affair/Sword Of Mercy for instance. Paperboy/Alfa Ora another. He also has a 1L second to Masked Crusader at nearly level weights to Masked Crusader! ! That day at Caufield vs Peperboy was massive being three wide throughout. Win Only @$10.

R7 KENTUCKY BREEZE has to lift and this is the “last chance saloon” from my perspective. I was really keen last time but he missed the start and then Jamie Kah inexcusably dragged him back to the rail which was exactly what I didn’t want to see. The horse has an atrocious 0-2/10 record from barriers 1-3 yet from barriers 4-6 he is 5-1/12. Today he draws barrier 6 and hopefully he gets the required galloping room. His run was okay considering what happened last start and he does meet the winner 2kg better at least. It will be an upset if he wins because it has been a long time between drinks for him. Thus just this one last chance today. THE DOCTOR’S SON is a sneaky place chance at big odd if he can jump well and get all the breaks like last time when we snagged him @ $34 or so a place. A definite watch on NIGHT’S WATCH with a couple of gear changes and more importantly a stable change. Andrew Bobbin takes over and seems to be quite a handy trainer. At his best he could win this. Having said all that the favourite PERSAN is the one they all have to beat. Each Way @ $26

R8 CUBA is the one I’m least confident about today but he is probably twice the odds he should be. First up last preparation he was placed behind the top class mare Probabeel, and he also has a win over Kolding on his resume. He has drawn perfectly to get the run of the race today and this is his best distance. He can be a bit hit and miss though and has to a lot more than he did at his only run this track. He has won at M/Valley though. Each Way @ $17

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