Kingston Town Stakes and Logical Longshots 5/12

Below is some historical referencing I did for this race yesterday in regard to the three year olds in particular. Five of the last 11 editions have fallen to that age group, and one of those didn’t contain a three year old so the ration is actually 50% which is very significant. And if they don’t win they very often run a placing.

Kingston Town Stakes (3yo) history

2019 Kay Cee (1) second WA Guineas

2018 Arcadia Queen (6) first WA Guineas

2017 Pounamu (8) sixth Railway Stakes- 3yo’s Achernar Star 3rd, Perfect Jewel 4th, Money Maher 7th.

2016 Stratum Star (1) second  59kg Sandown 1500m (30 days). No 3yo’s ran.

2015 Perfect Reflection (12) Heavy track. 1st WA Champion Fillies.

2014 Moriarty (1) – 3rd Railway Stakes. 3yo Disposition 2nd (13) only three year old to run was second in WA Guineas.

2013 Ihtsahymn (2) 1st WA Guineas.

2012 Playing God- (5) 14th beaten 9.25L in Railway Stakes. only 3yo King Saul ran third off his WA Guineas win

2011Playing God– (8) 1st Aquanita  3yo Listed 1800m

2010 Sniper’s Bullet– (16) 1st Railway Stakes. 3yo God Has Spoken 2nd (off Aquanita 1800m win) Thorn Dancer 4th off 1500m 3yo win.

2009 Niconero- (14) 4th Railway Stakes. Grand Nirvana only 3yo ran 8th after running 4th in WA guineas.

Analysis;

No doubt the horse they all have to beat here is the favourite INSPIRATIONAL GIRL who was ultra impressive winning the Railway Stakes in fast time. But, I think this is harder for her at WFA (giving weight to three year olds) and her wide barrier probably necessitates that she will have to settle back further in the field than last time. Her current price represents no value to me whatsoever although she clearly deserves favoritism at a bit better than $3 quote in my opinion. TOO CLOSE THE SUN has been a revelation and gets his chance to turn the tables on the aforementioned off a better draw than last time. He had to come back in distance last start and gets to a more suitable distance this time. He will take some running down but he too has to spot a lot of weight to the younger brigade. My initial preference was with DOM TO SHOOT who probably should have won the three year old Guineas. He was held up before the turn and rocketed home late. 1800m looks suitable off that effort and he should get a more favourable tempo this time. Having said that I think the filly WATCH ME DANCE has beaten him home three times now and had to back up to win the Guineas last start off a Heavy track win the previous week in the Fillies classic. What was noticeable in both those wins was how ‘kindly’ she travelled on both occasions and although neither win was by a big margin, she was able to get the job done. Given those performance I feel she will run the distance out and her overall form isn’t inferior to the likes of Arcadia Queen, Perfect Reflection or Kay Cee, In fact she has had more experience than all three leading in here with 11 starts for 5 wins. I’m leaning her way at an $11 price in comparison to the $7.50 for the Colt. Outside of those I thought UNITME represented good value off his excellent run behind Inspirational Girl in the Railway Stakes. He came from last there and was the only horse to make ground on her at the finish. It was a good sign he was hitting the line hard there. The other one I don’t mind at an even better price is NEUFBOSC. He has found some form out west, should be better suited at this distance and would be just about favourite in this race if he could recapture his best European form. That is around the likes of Kew Gardens and (indirectly) Cross Counter. His stablemate KAY CEE should maybe be forgiven her last start effort too. She is better off at the weights this time and her trainer is one of the best at turning form around and peaking them on the big day. I have then in this order’

  1. WATCH ME DANCE
  2. DOM TO SHOOT
  3. INSPIRATIONAL GIRL
  4. NEUFBOSC

That gives me one Logical Longshot for the day, and I’ll name another in R7 VALOUR ROAD. I’m surprised he is still at an $8-$8.50 quote given he probably would have won the Winterbottom Stakes last week had he got clear in the straight. He should be like a coiled spring here after that, and I just can’t understand how Celebrity Queen is $2 ( compared to his $8) even though she beat him home last start. She is yet to even run beyond 1400m, and whilst I’d prefer 1200m for Valour Road, he at least he ran a close second in this race last year.

Rosehill R6 KARMAZONE– I have to go again with him at the price today meeting the winner Accountabilty 2.5kg better for last start. He also meets Significance similarly at the weights for beating it home. Why is it $6 and this horse $16? Winona Costin might have taken the wrong option last start as well going to the rails. I’m hoping she comes to the outside today. $3.75 a place in a 9 horse field so I think we should go Each Way here.

Ascot R9- OCEANS FIFTEEN- Not really sure I should be going to this race as it’s one of the worst of the day (last leg of Quaddie!), but I think he is one of the main chances, and is definitely twice the price he should be given he meets Angelic Miss 2kg better for beating her home two starts ago. 1200m is clearly his best distance and the Blinkers go back on today coming back in distance 200m. There should be enough speed for him and whilst Dark Mission appears as the one to beat it, is just way too short in price today. It will go close on it’s trial win but her first up win last preparation wasn’t that impressive, although it turned out to be quite a good form race. It is drawn awkwardly here as are a few other good chances. A few in this are also not racing at their best distance. Not the Blinkers going back on a Redoute’s Choice offspring as was the case for Rock Magic last week for the same stable. At $9 this horse represents the big value in the race from an ideal barrier.

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