Logical Longshots 21/11

No good whatsoever last week but that’s the way it goes. I can only point out the obvious which should result in a good performance, but when they race below expectations it’s hard to explain why at times. Some people might have benefitted off an Each Way bet on Asiago (wasn’t recommended), but her failure to really hit the line after a perfect run in transit was symptomatic of my day.

Anyway, on to today and we live in hope. Going far and wide with a few at good prices. Unfortunately I won’t see any of these races until at least 5pm but will hopefully get to see the big races in Perth and Singapore live.

Kembla R3- KARMAZONE gets Winkers on first time here. He has been running very well without really finding the line late so I’m hoping they make a big difference. He is capable and also very honest. The evidence of that is 11 career starts and yet to be beaten more than 3.1L. He meets Kirwin’s Lane 5kg better for a 1.70L defeat two starts back and that same horse 10kg better for a half length defeat back in April. EACH WAY all day I feel @ $17 and $4.50 a place.

R5 SNEAK PREVIEW was awful last start in town but the start prior finished like a rocket behind Jailbreak at Dubbo, and I had to Blackbook him off that performance. He is 1/1 here and I think you just have to forgive that last effort and concentrate on his fresh stats which are excellent. First up three starts back he comfortably beat his stablemate Fast Talking who won a race in town a couple of weeks ago. He’s going to need to put in a career best effort but I don’t want to let him go around at better than $20 Each Way.

Ballarat R8 KIWIA– How can you not back this horse today? He did us an enormous favour winning this race last year at $16 and he is twice that price this time around. He is going for a threepeat in this race today and is also going for 5/5 at the track. He has only won two races since this time three years ago and they have been here at his home track. John Allen hasn’t been aboard since this race last year and has a 4-1/6 record on him. He also has a gear change of Visors on and Winkers off coming into this. You just have ignore his last effort where he pulled up lame and he hates Flemington anyway (0-1/8). The previous run was surprisingly good. His last four runs have been in exactly the same races as last year. That in itself is an achievement by the trainer. The negative is the wide barrier, but looking at some of his form I’m not sure he appreciates drawing in too close anyway. The weight of 59.5kg is 3kg more than last year but the minimum weight has been raised at least 2kg. Each Way @ $23 and $6. I’m on @ $61 and $11!

Perth R8 KEMENTARI– Can’t believe I’m doing this as I’m doubtful he can actually win (see Railway Stakes preview), but @ $15 from barrier 1 off a good lead up run it’s hard not to recommend at least an Each Way investment. It makes no sense at all that he is that price and Kay Cee is $6 looking at their last meeting. He may well have beaten her with a better run in transit. Then there is the Tongue Tie gear change today. He has only worn one once for a 4L+ victory. It could also be a masterstroke to have given him the one run here as most Eastern States visitors do find it hard to win here at their first try. Having said all that I am pretty keen on the favourite Inspiration Girl too. Her owner did point out that he is the horse to beat which is promising.

Kranji (Singapore) R10 BIG HEARTED– Looks a great chance in this with a light weight which is what normally wins this race, one I have had great success with over the years. I know this horse and backed him last start to win, and he did so with a resolute finish at his first go beyond a mile. Prior to that he was 2L off Inferno at level weights and it is the best horse in Singapore. I think he gets a 1kg claim here which means he only has 49kg to carry. The barrier however is of some concern, though he does tend to get back in his races anyway. His name is apt as he is a very honest horse with a career record of 5-3/11. Win Only at current price of $9.50 which seems very good value to me.

Good luck to all of you having a bet today.

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