Logical Longshots 17/10

Massive day of racing today but I’ve found it hard to find anything at massive odds that really stands out. Just the one at a good price which is one of two in the Caulfield Cup;

Caufield R7 SHAMINO– Isn’t quite double figure odds but I managed to get an odds boost to $10 about her. She has a good strike rate and has beaten Garner the last two times they have met at level weights so why is he three points shorter in the betting? She was twice the price at one stage. There is a hot speed in this and admittedly Alfa Ora looks the one to beat so I’d be taking one unit a win and a one unit Quinella with him.

Caulfield R9 (Caulfield Cup) DALASAN looks the weighted horse meeting Verry Elleegant 4kg better for a narrow defeat in the Turnbull. He handles the wet and mimics his stablemate Southern Speed who ran fourth in the Turnbull Stakes and carried 52,5kg in this. William Pike aboard isn’t going to hurt. Each Way him given he is nearly $4 the place.

TRUE SELF might be the best of the Imports and very much forgotten in this race because of her recent form. I do like that stat of 6-2/8 in races between October-November and I may well have underestimated her ability on wet tracks given she is 6/10 on Soft. Should get a perfect run from the draw and carries 3kg less weight than she has ever done. Two runs here last Spring were excellent and it’s hard for me to ignore her at $30+ Each Way. Best value of the day from my point of view.

Not a race I’m at all confident about though as my preview on Thursday suggests. Just about any runner can win it.

Randwick R7 (Everest) LIBERTINI is $9 (unbelievably) and might drift in price. I just have to be with her again given she is 5/5 on dry tracks. She has recorded two sub par 1.08.00 times here at 1200m and if she does it again she is going to be very hard to beat. The barrier isn’t ideal but I’m hoping that common sense prevails from there and Regan Bayliss doesn’t chase the speed. She is built like a male horse and gets the weight advantage over nearly all of her rivals here. On the last run she should be favourite at half this price . The big query is can she back it up here, but the odds suffice to find out.

I’m also backing Gytrash who has a suspect record at 1200m but realistically in the Goodwood in Adelaide he was up on a hot speed off a wide barrier and Trekking got the gun run. Swap those runs and he wins the race Today he can follow the speed and have first crack topping the rise, and I love the fact he comes into this nice and fresh as that is how he races best. Expecting him to drift quite a bit in price.

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