Logical Longshots 12/09

Off to a flyer last week with Humidor and once again I’ve found it pretty difficult to really find chances at double figure odds with realistic chances. They are there though, and although I haven’t been able to cover every race I’d like to, some diligence has uncovered a few. I’d be happy with one winner or a couple of placegetters. I’ve personally steered clear of the 3yo races which I suggest most punters should consider. You just don’t know that upside some have, they come from all different formlines, and most haven’t been on the track since their two year old days. If you have to back any make sure it’s one at a decent price (double figures) is my advice.

Flemington R7 MIAMI BOUND She may not be up to this class but I just don’t want to see her go around at this price without an investment. Ignore her Autumn form (she didn’t come up?) and base your assumption on what she did last Spring. In the Oaks she beat home Moonlight Maid by 5.25L. In the SA Derby Russian Camelot (the favourite) beat that same mare by 6.7L. That might suggest there isn’t too much between these two stablemates, she has the better draw, and the benefit of one run back which was quite impressive, making up many lengths from the 600m on. She is 2-2/4 at this track and 2/2 in the wet which might actually be her forte. Hopefully the rain has come by this time otherwise my confidence will have lessened, not to say that I’m full of it in anyway regard to her chances. $26 necessitates serious thought though. Gatting returns to the scene of his greatest victory in this race which came off a last placing first up, and the same scenario exists here. He has drawn well again and just may be a Flemington horse having had only the one run here. He could get out to 100-1 or more again and who knows what might happen in a race that rarely produces a winner that goes on to do anything in future Spring races.

Randwick R7 RIODINI resumes here for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott and has been pretty much ignored in the market here which is probably based on hidings in two soft trials behind Nature Strip. Apparently he has made immense improvement since the second one and he is 2/2 first up and 2/2 in the wet. On right handed tracks he is 4-1/5 with his worst effort last start on a left handed track when pushed very wide on the turn and maybe not handling the corner that day. The only defeat right handed was a narrow one at the hoofs of Dragon Leap. That horse got crucified with 58.5kg last week in a stronger Tramway handicap but was only beaten 2 lengths. The 53kg here for Riodini almost looks a luxury in comparison. At $17 or better he looks worthy of an each way investment though his chances probably rest on a positive ride from an awkward barrier in a race that may lack an abundance of speed.

Randwick R8 JEN RULES is going around at an astronomical price which is the reason why I can’t resist. She might lack the class but I think she has shown steady improvement and wasn’t far away in a G2 race last time at a distance I feel is further than she wants. That day she beat home Outback Barbie who had prior been close up at G1 level in the Stradbroke. It is $18 here whilst JR is $81?? I think this is her best distance for a first up and she will appreciate some give in the track. Her trial recently wasn’t too bad at all and she has drawn well. This is a mares race so anything is possible. $17 a place is available on Bet 365. There are some great stats in this race for the likes of Shout The Bar (unbeaten first up, track, distance and wet- weight?), Haut Brion Her, and Evalina (3/3 second up and drier the better). It might be worth considering those three in your Quaddie.

Randwick R9 CISCO BAY needs the track to be rain affected looking at his fine stats of 5/9 on Soft going. With the claim for Brock Ryan he gets in well against all the horses he opposed last start so why is he $23+ and Orcein (unlucky admittedly last start) $9 meeting him 2.5kg worse off? Laure Me In beat him home 1.5L last preparation but is 3.5kg worse off today and is lacking fitness. This horse is going to need luck and a good ride from a wide barrier, but he can go forward and he was wide from the 600m last start and did a good job to finish as close as he did. He just seems overs in what is not an overly strong race really.

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