The Goodwood is Race 8 (3.55 pm AEST) at Morphettville on Saturday run over a distance of 1200m. It is a famous old Sprint race of the Australian Turf conceived in 1881.
It was made a set weights and penalties race in 2007 (previously a handicap) which attracted the high calibre likes of Takeover Target and Black Caviar, who duly won at very short odds. But apart from those two results, taking Handicap status away from the race hasn’t stopped the upset results coming.
So to say it has been a bit of a nightmare race for punters would be somewhat of an understatement. Below are the last 12 winners (including age, gender and weight carried) since the race became a set weights and penalties race in 2007.
2019 DESPATCH 4g 56kg $21
2018 SANTA ANA LANE 5g 58.5kg $26
2017 VEGA MAGIC 4g 56.5kg $4.80
2016 BLACK HEART BART 5g 57kg $2.80
2015 FLAMBERGE 5g 56.5kg $21
2014 SMOKIN’ JOEY 6g 56kg $41
2013 PLATELET 4m 56.5kg $9
2012 BLACK CAVIAR 5m 57kg $1.05
2011 LONE ROCK 3f 52kg $31
2010 VELOCITEA 4m 54kg$7
2009 TAKEOVER TARGET 9g 58.5kg $1.40
2008 SHADOWAYS 5g 54kg $31
2007 LET GO THOMMO 6g 55.5kg $31
Recent History tells us:
– Seven of the last Twelve winners started $20 or better, and four of those have been $31 or better.
– 15 of the last 19 winners have been trained in Victoria.
– 14 of the last 17 had started at 1100m or 1200m last start.
– Wider barriers appear to be no real disadvantage with 7 of the last 17 winners drawing in the second half of the field. Four of those drew a double-digit barrier.
– A filly or mare has won four of the past Nine editions, and five of the past 15. In the past 29 years, eight have won, representing a strike rate of over 30 per cent. None have managed to win in the past seven years though which is a slightly concerning trend for the fairer sex. Prior to that they had won four in a row.
– Four year olds have the most prolific record winning 12 of the past 29 editions, but oddly
Only two four-year-old male horses have won since the year 2000 (Vega Magic and Despatch last year), and only five have won since 1990. Eight of the last Eleven winners have been aged 5 or over, with five of them aged 5.
-Only 3 of last 13 winners have carried more weight than at their prior start- Black Caviar (+0.5kg) and Shaodoways (+2kg), the latter still only having to carry 54kg to victory and Despatch last year
The last 8 winners have carried 56kg or more, and 10 of the last 13 winners have carried 55.5kg or more.
-7 of last 13 winners came out of a Group 1 race last start.
-Before Santa Ana Lane won two years ago, and Despatch last year, the last horse to come out of the DC Mackay Stakes to win this was Super Elegant in 2004. Despatch is the first horse horse to win that race (and then this one) was Boardwalk Angel in 1989.
-15 of last 20 winners won or placed at their prior start to winning this. 9 of 13 since the weight scale has changed.
– Only one horse has managed to win this first up in the new millennium (Vega Magic). -All the fillies and mares that have won this race since the new millennium have won or placed at their previous start. Flamberge came close to being a first up winner in 2015 coming off a 55 day break. He is/was a notable fresh performer.
JUNGLE EDGE and XILONG look the two leaders, with the latter benefiting more from a rails draw, and possibly content to sit off the older horse. Sumlight and Order Of Command should be just off the pace getting all favours, and Gytrash can also sit handy though risks being caught wide off his awkward barrier. If I had to make an educated guess I’d say the on pacers are more suited in this race, and we’ve already seen two big Morphettville Sprints in the past 12 months (last years Goodwood and this years Robert Sangster) dominated by on pace runners). It really depends on how fast Jungle Edge wants to go, and how much pressure Xilong wants to apply early. Because the former has drawn wide he is probably going to have to go faster early than his connections would have preferred. Had he drawn better, he would have had more of a chance to relax.
SANTA ANA LANE- 5-1/8 with 22-28 days between runs (P). 5-1/12 Group 1 Races (P).
TREKKING- 6/10 with 15-35 days between runs (P). 9-7/22 dry tracks (P)?
GYTRASH- 6-1/7 at 1000m, 1-4/6 at 1200m (N). 8-9/18 Career (P) 4-2/6 Soft tracks (
SUNLIGHT- 4/4 third up (P)
ZOUTORI- 5-5/11 with more than 15 days between runs (P).
JUNGLE EDGE- 0-3/13 Group 1 races (N), 0-7/26 Dry tracks (N)? 18-17/54 wet tracks (P)? 5-1/8 fifth and sixth up in preparations.
THE INEVITABLE- 2/2 third up (P). 4/4 with 22-28 days between runs (N)
ORDER OF COMMAND- 5-1/6 in the Autumn (P). 5-1/7 Soft tracks (N)?
BEHEMOTH- 3-4/8 barriers 1-6 (N0
BOLD STAR- 1-1/8 track. 5-1/6 in fields of less than eight runners (N)
LYRE- 3-0/4 barriers 4-9. Blinkers first time last start and Group 1 placed.
XILONG- 5-3/9 career thus far. Blinkers on first time last start and won.
AMBERDI- 7-3/15 <56kg. 2/2 fourth up (P) 5-2/8 Barriers 7-9 (P)
L’IL KONTRA- Winkers On First time.
Firstly I’m a bit surprised to see the track is still rated a Soft 5 which may not improve today. That probably means there is going to be some give in the surface all day. In the stats analysis I have labelled either a positive or negative for the horse in brackets but have now had to put a question mark besides a few of them. Some give in the surface certainly suits the likes of Order Of Command and Jungle Ruler at face value, and probably hinders Trekking, Sunlight and Zoutori to a degree. I have had some advice that the track should be better off the rail today so perhaps a wider barrier draw isn’t going to be a hindrance.
I’m not going to go into massive form analysis here but I did like the historical profile and relative odds of ZOUTORI at around a $20 quote early. Given he finished alongside Gytrash in the Newmarket not that long ago, and the weights are similar here, he looks way over the odds. Obviously you have to ignore the last start failure but that’s not hard to do given he didn’t get a look in down the running, and was rearward in a leader dominated race. He goes very well fresh. My initial though was that BEHEMOTH is well weighted keeping in mind the lower weighted ones don’t normally win this race. Hard to knock though and he might be set to peak from a good draw. ORDER OF COMMAND seems to be a different horse this preparation and reminds me a bit of last year’s winner Despatch who had come into the race off some wins when sitting three wide. OOC has won both his races off three wide runs this preparation and now drops in weight significantly. Any give in the track looks favourable. GYTRASH is a deserved favourite on his form of late and last start win, but there does seem to be a couple of negatives he has to overcome. Maybe the barrier actually plays in his favour but his form is slightly better at less than 1200m. At least he has decent form at the trip though, unilike Despatch last year, and Bella Vella a couple of weeks ago. He is likely to at least loom as the winner in the straight. SANTA ANA LANE needs to find his best form, and requires a solid speed. But he is a former winner, and looking at his form the past twelve months this is the right break between runs for him.
- Order Of Command