I’ve only really looked at this meeting today and have spent the vast majority of the time on the 2yo race. Mostly because I knew bugger all about most of them as I normally miss the early races on a Saturday. Not too sure you can take these ideas too seriously but I’ll include a couple of Logical Longshot’s ( not too long) in this post. I’m starting off in Race 4;
KEMALPASA– Put simply I think he is too big a price to ignore today given he has won 8 of his last 12 starts and not missed a place in any of them. Where are you going to find $12 about a topweight with that sort of form anywhere? Even better he has been here a while and has won a trial in preparation. Have to back Win Only at a double figure price but he looks good for a place multi also.
R5 LA TIGERESA- Was blocked at a crucial time in the straight last start and she might have won that race with clear running. I thought Tahitian Dancer was poorly weighted against her that day (I still saved), and she is even worse off today. Remembering this mare was a close second to Teleplay who then went on to beat Hey Doc who in turn won the Winterbotom at WFA level in Perth. Hopefully no excuses from a perfect barrier today.
R6- Hard to tip confidently against Alligator Blood here but Leviathan recorded good time figures last start, and It’s Kind Of Magic overcame a three wide run last start at M/Valley to win well. Both these horses are proven at 1400m whereas a lot of others have been shy of this distance or perhaps looking for further. I thought they could go in the Quaddie with him and in Trifectas perhaps. Healthy respect for Dubious and Hightail also.
R7 I have this down to three but admittedly have just based this assumption on times. Something to keep in mind is that the last ten winners have won prior.
I’m going with GOTTA KISS who has drawn perfectly, won last start and should get the gun run. She broke the class record winning last start and LADY BANFF was right there with her and should have won the race off a 3 wide run. The latter has won at the distance whereas the former hasn’t, but the stable is adamant she is looking for it, and also her breeding suggests it shouldn’t be an issue. LB will be up on the pace and has drawn a bit wide. If they can can take a sit though who knows what she is capable of? FARNAN is the other I like given his time last start compares favourably to that of Capitalist who won the same race prior in 2016. The stable might have pulled off a masterstroke last week galloping at the Gold Coast given 4 of the last 5 winners have won here 7 days prior. GOTTA KISS Each Way @ $13 and $4 presently.
R8- I really don’t like this race which seems to have multiple chances. It’s hard to bet confident about anything. I’m keen to back SMARTEDGE who has been such an improver of late and looks to have been set for this. I thought the most interesting thing was Luke Currie jumping off Over Exposure (for McEvoy) to ride USAIN BOWLER. It won it’s last start at 1400m very easily though does come off a failure. VEGA ONE has a few negatives but crucially is 4-2/7 with more 15-28 days between runs. Kept fresh worked for him last time out. SAMBRO is a total enigma but he was doubly engaged today, and might just have hated Eagle Farm last start as a lot of horses do. His win rate is not encouraging but JMac might find the key. DEEP IMAGE looks the one they all have to beat but can he win again conceding weight to some decent rivals?
R9 I had to go with BOOMSARA here who is 2/2 third up. Initially I thought there was too much pace in the race but he is the only one of the pacemakers to have drawn well. He was so tough first up on a hot speed, and then might have been a touch flats second up. He races best here so is hard to knock. The one I am wary of is TOKORIKI LAD who was a bit stiff to be beaten by Chapter And Verse here last year. He meets that horse 4kg better and was seen to be making useful ground last start though was never a winning hope. It took this horse an age to find form last preparation so is he ready? You would suspect so given the prizemoney on offer. Outback Barbie seems to find E/Farm a no go zone so could improve but I would have liked to see her with less weight and a bit less distance. She could win though.
Good punting. The two Bolded are my LL bets for today though I’d probably list BOOMSARA as my best bet.