Unbelievable result last week jagging the Quaddie at Randwick so I have to go there again this week ,even though I would have liked to solely concentrate on one race mainly, as I did last week on the Doncaster. Instead I tried to put more time into the last four races and will mention a couple of others at reasonable value. I’ll probably take all the ones in Bold in the Quaddie but have a preference for the ones not in Italics. Just singling out the one in the last leg to cut the cost down a bit.
R7 Queen Elizabeth- Hardly likely that we are going to see anything but a fairytale finish for WINX and you only have to look at the Doncaster Quinella last week to realise that she is in another dimension to these, and is likely to be peaking for this race. I had to take the Japanese horse KLUGER in the Winx out market @ $11 after he ran pretty much as well as I expected last week. He was very fresh in the mounting yard before the race and that suggests to me he will strip fitter for this. I did mention last week he is a big strapping horse, and his last two wins in Japan were when he weighed less than 520kg. No idea what he weighed in at last week, but you’d think he would have trimmed down a bit. He has won at the trip so I’m hopeful he can run second. I will also take him in the first leg of the Quad with the champion mare. He’s Eminent, Happy Clapper and Hartnell have to be added to Quinellas, Tri’s and First 4’s obviously and perhaps the former is the one that Winx will have to run run down in the straight.The latter is not really at his best at 2000m but the gear change is interesting (might settle better) and he loves this track. Hartnell just keeps on producing the goods and the Doncaster wasn’t run to suit last week. Quick backup for him a bit of a question mark.
R8 (Sydney Cup) You have to put the favourite DUBHE in all your multis here I feel. He was very strong at the end of two miles in Dubai and there is enough in that form to suggest he will be competitive here. He beat the third horse Jukebox Jive home a mile there and although it appear past it’s best it did have good form behind the likes of Marmelo and Stradivarius (top class European stayer) early in it’s career. The time was good enough to win a 3200m here and he has a very light weight. However there is very little value in his price now. I think the NZ mare GLORY DAYS is great value @ $20 or so. Rarely do you see a mare come from last to win two consecutive staying races in a row and she should relish Randwick given that. The first of those wins was at 2400m and she was dying late in the piece. I personally would not have picked her to win a 2 mile Auckland Cup after that but she did it with ease on a very heavy track sustaining a long run from the rear. Her wide barrier is irrelative and Corey Brown aboard is probably a bonus given his two mile record and recent form. She is also 2/2 on right handed tracks which have been those last two starts. SOUND could be the big improver on a dry track. He looked as though he would do something in the straight last start but just couldn’t pick up on the heavy ground. His best form is on better surfaces, and he has a two mile win (on protest) in Germany over a horse called Nearly Caught who would probably rate as one of the top 5 two mile horses in Europe off his last win. He has drawn a bit wide today which doesn’t augur confidence but if he gets an economical run he could be the surprise packet. MIDTERM is going to be in the race for a long way and might run the 3200m going off his last win at 2400m. The Williams owned horses often do win the Sydney and Adelaide Cups when they are in form and at these sort of odds. Breeding suggest he might struggle though. And the other NZer RONDINELLA intrigues me on that score too. On breeding you would think 2400m would see her out, but she just keeps finding the line, suggesting she will run this trip out. She was maybe ridden a bit too aggressively last start, and in the prior race in NZ she got knocked around before the turn and did incredibly well to run a place in the end. Quite a few other chances here including Gallic Chieftain but you can’t pick them all.
Race 9 (Coolmore Legacy)- I think this is the trickiest of the four races and could easily be leaving the winner out. Interestingly the last two winners have been three year olds coming off below par efforts at 2000m. Bizarrely 4 of the last 6 winners have started with the letter A. Two of them go around here.
I think you have to have PROMPT RESPONSE in your first 4 here on her last effort alone behind Winx. The beaten margin looks discouraging, but she wasn’t far behind Dreamforce who ran a terrific second in the Doncaster to Brutal who beat PR home 4L in that same race. 1600m is definitely as far as she wants, but she has drawn well and will be afforded every chance. I loved the way KENEDNA found the line last start in Melbourne. She was eating up the ground late on a track that probably didn’t suit. She seems to have maintained her 3yo form and might be even better than she was then. A few of the top chances here are a bit of a query at 1600m but she is not. And she won her first start right handed in Qld before a very game run in the QTC Oaks. Massive overs @ $26. AMPHITRITE has been a little disappointing in her past two runs, but both were behind that Champion filly Mystic Journey(winners of the 2 Quaddie legs last week had a formline around her as did the winner in Melbourne Lady Pluck). Not sure if she is on a downward spiral or not but she deserves another chance. A change of direction and a bit of give in the track might be all she needs. And to get to the outside in the straight as well. NAKEETA JANE fits the profile of the last two winners and might just need a truly run race to win from her wide barrier. Her win three starts back here at 1400m was exceptional when coming very wide on the turn. DIXIE BLOSSOMS did as well as she could have last week when the pace didn’t suit. She ran great and has to go in as a chance here despite the improving track conditions. She could be another mare today to go out on a G1 winning note. What to make of FUNDAMENTALIST? I was worried about the month between runs for her but she got the A1 run in transit and a pace to suit. She faded right away in the straight though. Prior to that her back up run behind The Autumn Sun was enormous and maybe we just have to forgive last week. Firing up form her wide barrier early might switch her into gear again. She too has the Mystic Journey form. Many other chances and I’m concened I still might have missed the winner in this lot (Alizee?)
R10 Most people will have SPRIGHT on top here but I’m taking her on a bit with her record at Randwick, and the fact that WINTER BRIDE held her off safely the last time they met here. The latter is the horse they all have to beat with her winning strike rate and fresh record. The draw could be the difference between a win and a loss for her depending on how the track plays. The best value could well be EGYPTIAN SYMBOL though. She is also a bomb fresh and all her recent below par runs have been on very wet tracks. Her last two wins have been on dry ground and she has the ideal type of barrier here and a stablemate who might set up the pace she might need (Irithea). She is way over the price she should be @ $16 as is SIREN’S FURY who staged an amazing effort to win last start. She is probably a better mare on Heavy ground but she is also capable on the dry. The track will have some give anyway. Notably she has beaten Spright the two times they have met albeit on wet tracks which don’t suit that mare. Still more chances in this but can’t mention them all. ELLICAZOOM maybe better a little fresher?
In the Oaks I have to be with the value horse ARISTIA who is the only filly to have won at the trip. Drier ground will suit and the other two favourites VERRY ELEEGANT and FRANKELY AWESOME will be giving her a big start in all likelihood. The distance is a slight query for both of them with the latter probably peaking on her run late last start.
I’ve really struggled to find anything of note in the other states. Some could win but are either not in the right stage of their preparation or just not suited at their optimim distance. One of those is R4 Ascot KENSINGTON ABBEY. But she is going to start at big odds and almost should have won first up at 100-1. Her second up record is hardly encouraging but she basically had a barrier trial last start and he second up run last preparation was solid beaten only 1.5L. At the odds I’ll have a small outlay Each Way